You’ve probably heard the goofy nonsense that the world is supposed to end in December 2012. These predictions are based on ancient Mayan prophecy (and if the ancient Mayans were so good at prophecy, then why didn’t they foretell the collapse of their own civilization?*) and even worse bases of thinking.
So of course Hollywood is making a movie of it. Variety reports that Roland Emmerich (who made Day After Tomorrow and the equally specious 10,000 BC coming soon) has sold his idea of global apocalypse in 2012 to Sony pictures, which has greenlit the blockbuster.
I’ve been planning to debunk this garbage for a long time, and now I guess I’d better get on it. Enthusiasm for this doomsday-of-the-day will probably start ramping up for real now, and it’s bad enough already.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: what do policemen, doctors, firemen, and debunkers all have in common?
They wish they were out of work. But they never will be.
*I changed the text a bit after reading the comments below. While I think that Ethan’s reaction is ridiculously overblown, part of his basic point is correct; Mayan descendants are still around, and so my original statement was incorrect. I changed it to reflect that; but my own sentiment is correct as well: if the Mayans were so skilled at prophecy that they could predict the end of the world more than a millennium in advance, why didn’t they see the end of their own world coming?
February 25th, 2008 at 9:18 am
The faster word gets out regarding this how stupid the “2012 apocalypse” idea is, the faster it will get into mainstream press. The more rational, skeptical minds we have telling the truth about it can hopefully temper down the raging idiots who spread the doom-saying lies and untruths.
Of course, since the hard-core conspiracy wackos will never believe us, we need to get to the people who are “on the fence” about whether they believe this stuff or not.
We must light the way.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:20 am
(and if the Mayans were so smart, then where are they now?)
They saw the disaster coming so they loaded themselves onto their spaceships and flew back to their home planet in the Vega system.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:21 am
“and if the Mayans were so smart, then where are they now?”
And with that, I have ceased my RSS subscription to the BA Blog.
I have no doubt that the world will very much be around in 2012, but if you can’t see the incredibly, let’s see… offensive? Ill informed? Haughty? nature of that would-be throwaway comment, I recommend a nice hiatus and maybe some nice reading. I recommend “Lies My Teacher Told Me”, which might inspire some sort of amendment, if not retraction.
All the best.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:22 am
What?? The world’s not going to end on 12/21/12? Here I was–bein’ all good and stuff so I could pass the acid test and go to Heaven. Now I can’t quit working and make my money last to that date. Sigh. Back to same ole-same ole.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Phil,
I am truly suprised….I was just reading a website and laughing about said Mayan doomsday late last night.
Stop reading my mind!
Also, side question regarding the previous post you made. Will it be possible to further determine how far along Eta Carinae is in its death throws after JWST goes up? Being that JWST is primarily IR, it should be able to gather much more data than NiCMos was able to on hubble. I’m hoping the community can gather more info on that so we really have a shot at doomsday =P
Anyhow, thanks again, keep up the great work!
-Josh
February 25th, 2008 at 9:29 am
*Groans* The day after tomorrow was so painful, I can only shudder at the idea of that ridiculous movie.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:32 am
So the Mayan calendar ends on 12/21/12? So what? I’ve got another calendar here on my desk that ends 12/31/08! OMG! I’ve got another one here that ends 2/29/08! That’s this week! Gotta go–things to do before the apocalypse.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Ethan, I can’t speak for the BA, but I know that the Mayan people are still around today, technically. They are still around today in the same way that the Vikings are still around today. But the civilization slowly withered away and the culture was merged with, and partially replaced by, that of the conquistadors (hence the rife Catholicism). Vikings are still around too, but, just like the Maya, little of their original culture or works remain except ruins and flagrant misinterpretations by pop culture.
Thus, in context, I would say the the BA’s statement is correct, even though both th Mayan people and parts of their culture thrive to this day in… somewhere in Central America. Don’t remember exactly where. Hang on, I’ll look it up… a quick search leads me to think that they currently stretch from south central Mexico to around Guatemala.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Everybody can relax, this calendar clearly shows that there will be a year 2013:
http://www.calendardate.com/2013.php
Proof positive that the world won’t end in 2012 (whew, I was starting to get scared for a minute there!!)
February 25th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Phil, I know your throwaway comment about “where are the Mayans now?” was meant as a joke, but really, it could be seen as offensive. Mayan descendants are still very much alive today - google “modern Maya” and you’ll see what I mean.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Well let me say that I believe the world is going through a lot of changes do to the damage it been going through the last 50 to 70 yrs. I know mother earth will cleanse itself and start new age. I think that Miyans knew what they were talking about, by looking at the stars. I am a Lakota Sioux and we also have prophecies of the world ending well not ending but starting a new begining, in 2012. Our prophecy is called the White Buffalo Woman prophecy. I know great people from around the world look to the sky for answers, Our god will show us how to overcome these changes ahead of us. To all my Relations.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:52 am
The Mayan descendants may be still be around, but their civilization certainly isn’t.
Ah, the perils of Contact,,,
Apocalypse scenarios are popular with folks old, sick ,infirm and really deep in debt.
I am none of those(ok, I’m sorta old,,,but only chronologically).
Thus I look forward to interesting times. I seriously doubt the vast majority of our population will look upon the end of one Mayan calendar as anything but the end of a cycle. Endings beget new beginnings and most people really do understand that. It’s just the neurotic/psychotic that are in peril of their fear. Speak softly to them,,,
Gary 7
February 25th, 2008 at 10:01 am
What do you expect from Emmerich anyway? If you ever want to stimulate a fit of apoplexy, just fire up the DVD extras for the movie “Stargate” and see his paens and odes for Erich von Daniken contained therein. I’m willing to give it a bye on the grounds of making a great premise for a thriller flick, but d00d drank the koolade and liked the flavour.
Emmerich is good at cranking out B-movie stuff, but wouldn’t recognise real-world science if it walked up and politely introduced itself.
— Steve
February 25th, 2008 at 10:03 am
@Jarrod: Yea. Prophecies. Like they ever worked.
My god told me how to overcome the 2012 changes. By working and not even noticing that nothing will happen.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Didn’t the Mayans consider 13 to be a lucky number? They’ve got their superstitions all backwards! Obviously, 13 is a cursed number. Isn’t that what Jesus taught us?
February 25th, 2008 at 10:07 am
@Ethan
So… let’s see… you can take the opportunity to address the offense you took by taking BA’s comment about “Where are they now” regarding the Mayans out of context by opening a dialogue that maybe he should clarify his statement to say “the Mayan culture at the height of its civilization when these calendars were first created”, so as not to offend any existing Mayan descendants…
Or you can growl “hrmph”, take your toys and go home…
And I see you’ve chosen option B…
Very well then. I’m sure we’ve all learned a valuable lesson.
I for one, choose to take the comment not so literally and derive an understanding that what is intended is to point out that the Mayans for whom this calendar was relevant… their CIVLIZATION, is no longer in our midst.
However, were I to take the position of devil’s advocate and were a member of the woo-woo mafia, I might counter that point by stating that the Mayans may full well have known that an apocolyptic event was going to take place on that date, but may NOT have been able to see the things that led to the demise of their civilization in advance… such as disease, foreign invasion and drought. So their ability to foresee a future apocalyptic event may have no bearing on their survival as a culture or a civilization.
Blech… I feel dirty for even writing that… but I’m going ot bet you will get that counter-argument… so be prepared. S’all I’m saying.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:08 am
I’m more scared about the Lord’s Witnesses’ biblical armaggedon prediction on March 21st than this Mayan garbage.
IF you can call it “scare”, though.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:10 am
I just love how Emmerich hated the Stargate series. You know… the really *successful* one that ran for 10 years and spawned a successful spinoff that’s still going, and where many fans don’t even think about the original movie or hold it in disdain.
Just stop going to his movies, and he will go away.
It’s like the crowd over at Ain’t It Cool News. They lament the state of modern film, but when some crap B flick comes along, you see endless posts along the lines of “Wow! This will suck! Can’t wait to go see it!” It’s like they don’t realize that their attitude is not recorded when they buy a ticket. The only thing recorded is a ticket sale.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:14 am
I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it until the date arrives-
The only thing you’ll see in 2012 is me laughing at a bunch of babbling new-agey lemurs.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Didn’t the Mayans consider 13 to be a lucky number?
Well, sort of. It shows up a lot. The Kaballah also considers 13 to have some sort of sacredness. I’m no expert. Ask Madonna.
The only thing you’ll see in 2012 is me laughing at a bunch of babbling new-agey lemurs.
Yeah, famous last words. Moo hoo ha ha!
and if the Mayans were so smart, then where are they now?
Uh, alive and well, Phil. The “vanishing Mayan” is a myth. The decline was mainly in the southern districts and caused by either some environmental shift or massive societal upheaval. And, oh, *we’re* such experts at handling those, aren’t we, here in the brilliant and sane 21st century? [/sarcasm]
The northern districts in the Yucatán continued to develop for centuries afterward. Sites like Chichen Itza were built *after* the mythical die off.
And then the Spaniards came along with their superior tech, and still took almost TWO CENTURIES to finally subjugate those not allegedly so smart Mayans. Part of it was due to the fact that their political power was highly decentralized, so there was no major center of control to capture. You hear that, you “big federal government” Democrats and Republicans?
I knew all those books and TV specials on ancient civiliztions would pay off some day.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I changed the text a bit in the post, since there was a core truth to some of the comments. I made my position more clear.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Um. wow your so cool because you think the world is ending. well its not. get over it.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:36 am
FREQFORCE, you didn’t mean lemmings did you?
Also a myth, by the way. Their march to suicide, not the lemmings themselves.
Some Disney filmmakers in the 1950’s even chased some lemmings over a cliff to “document” the behavior. Think about that next time you are on Space Mountain.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Well, me, I’m fine with a total apocalypse in 2012, under one condition: we all get to curse, whip, and stone Mel Gibson as he carries his own (fill in religious symbol) on his back all the way to the end of the world.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Endeavor, it helps if you quote the post to which you are replying.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:45 am
I have determined that if Hollywood makes a movie, then, by definition, it is fiction. And as soon as you see the words “based on real events”, you can be even more certain it is fiction. So a purveyor of B-flicks is going to make another B-flick based on a misreading of an ancient text. Wasn’t that called ‘The 10 Comandments”?
Let’s all relax, and simply mock the drones who believe that Hollywood makes documentaries. It’s fiction, people, as is “The DaVinci Code”, as is “The Book of Mormon”, as is “The Koran” as is “The Golden Compass”. Now, criticizing any story on the basis of its quality of writing, or film editing, or (in the case of movies or plays) the acting, is fine! But, let’s keep it in perspective, people. Phil is right to rail about loonies who mistake fiction for reality (where are they?, heh, heh…) but let’s keep our concerns simple: it’s fiction, it’s fiction, it’s fiction….
Oh, and the best thing about “The Day After Tomorrow” was that it was released in the middle of a heat wave, and I was able to feel chilly even when the temperature was over 30!
February 25th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Phil, if when you write your debunking, be sure to touch upon the Dark Ages. Woo wooers eternally love to touch upon “lost knowledge” by the “ancients” and the Dark Ages is surely when much knowledge was lost. They of course always forget how we have more than gained it all back, at least when it comes to scientific knowledge.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I just realized that’s only about four years away!!! Upon first hearing, it seemed so distant as to not even think about it. Perhaps it’s an artifact of having grown up in the 1900’s.
Guess I’d better get cracking…
February 25th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Can’t wait to read your debunkment of this one. I debunk this one more than anything else to friends/co-workers/etc. It really is amazing how little the capacity for simple logical thought has become in this world.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Cory Meyer writes:
[[the Dark Ages is surely when much knowledge was lost]]
What knowledge was that, precisely?
And how can you tell if it was lost?
February 25th, 2008 at 11:08 am
You’ll have more fun debunking Terrance McKenna’s novelty theory, which many people - more so than McKenna himself ever did - take to predict a sociological singularity in 2012 matching the Mayan calendar.
Sure it’s pseudoscientific bunkum, but pseudoscientific bunkum is slightly more interesting than plain old crap.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:10 am
I still think that there was this room where these Mayans were working on the calendar. Someone walks in and asks “How is the calendar going? You’ve gone HOW far? Right… that’s enough for now, go and do something else now.”
No prediction necessary. No secret knowledge. Just people working on something else, and never getting back to something that clearly did not need to be handled for a couple of centuries.
That or it loops there… so why keep going.
Or the next year was put into a different pile that wasn’t found.
But NOOOOO… they have to read in some deep and mysterious end of the world thing.
Philip.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:25 am
“…why didn’t they foretell the collapse of their own civilization?”
They did; but the guvment didn’t tell anyone, see. They didn’t want to alarm the people.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I wrote out a big thing back when you hit your 6M visit mark. (Grats, BTW.) Justin had pointed out a 2012 Doomsday site, and I decided to do a bit of research and debunk one of the site’s main “supporting” arguments.
http://mandydax.livejournal.com/205010.html
My friend and I are seriously thinking of having a superparty that night. Once every 394 years, heck, yeah!
February 25th, 2008 at 11:29 am
“[[the Dark Ages is surely when much knowledge was lost]]”
“What knowledge was that, precisely?”
The recipe for cement. The Romans could make it but took the secret with them when their empire fell.
As for the lemmings vs. lemurs question, in view of the behavior of the lemurs in the movie “Madagascar”, I think they might be more relevant.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:40 am
It’s fiction, people, as is “The DaVinci Code”, as is “The Book of Mormon”, as is “The Koran” as is “The Golden Compass”.
Uh, I don’t think The Golden Compass ever claimed to be based on true events.
Otherwise, where’s my talking, armored polar bear, dammit! 
Oh, and the best thing about “The Day After Tomorrow” was that it was released in the middle of a heat wave, and I was able to feel chilly even when the temperature was over 30!
30? Bah! You kids and your Celsius!
The Rankine scale forever!
February 25th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Oh crap, the world isn’t going to end in 2012!
Help I need a retirement planner quick!
February 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I think instead of The Golden Compass, what was meant is whatever religious text is used by the Golden Dawn. Then again, perhaps he was mentioning an accepted work of fiction to emphasize his point.
As for knowledge lost in the Dark Ages, the Romans also took the recipe for Greek Fire with them into obscurity. Shame, too. It sounds nifty.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
I wonder how this Mayan calendar scare will compare to Y2K?
February 25th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Sorry to say, Phil, you’re wrong. I have found a completely independent line of evidence that proves 2012 is The End of Civilization. I started a thread in the Conspiracy Theories forum with all the details.
… and yes, this is a joke… OR IS IT???
February 25th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Lost Knowledge: Specifically, the Romans had a method for mixing cement with volcanic ash that made it more durable and resistant - not to mention indoor plumbing.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
“why didn’t they foretell the collapse of their own civilization?”
Who is to say that they didn’t? There were once hundreds of Mayan books called codices but the stupid Spaniards destroyed all but four of them: 1.) Madrid Codex, 2.) Dresden Codex, 3.) Paris Codex, and 4.) Grolier Codex. We don’t know what was in the hundreds of other codices that the Spanish destroyed.
Concerning the collapse of the classical Mayan civilization I would strongly suggest you look at the NOVA program on the subject entitled “Lost King of the Maya”:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/maya
Different Mayan cities met their demise at different times. For example, the last dated inscription at Copan is 822 C.E. The city of Tulum on the other hand was still populated when the Spanish arrived in the 16th century. So there was no sudden collapse that engulfed the entire civilization at one time. That’s a modern myth.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
What I would really like to know is whether the Mayans predicted the end of Time or if it was some recent “investigator” who decided that some undeciphered painting or hieroglyph really meant “the end of the world”.
You have better access to the exact quotes, so you know that Mayan, Aztec and Inca hieroglyphs were shown to mean everything under the Sun, including extraterrestrials. Some have been conclusively deciphered, others have not.
So, are these doom-sayers resurfacing real predictions or are they inventing the whole thing?
February 25th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Not that I believe it, but the big deal about is it it’s not just the Mayan, but Nostrodamus, Casey, and one or two tales from the East, and a Native American prophecy that all seem to coincide about the same time.
Silly, I know, but the Scf-fi/Fantasy lover in me finds it interesting.
Excuse me, but I have to weigh tachyons now.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Am I the only one thinking Armageddon kegger?
This really isn’t that outrageous. We have been warned….
—
This is Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz of the Galactic Hyperspace Planning Council. As you will no doubt be aware, the plans for development of the outlying regions of the Galaxy require building of a hyper-spatial express route through your system, and regrettably your planet is one of those scheduled for destruction. The process will take slightly less than two of your Earth minutes. Thank you.
Oh, there’s no point acting all surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display in your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for fifty of your Earth years. You’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint, and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now.
What do you mean, you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? For heaven’s sake, mankind, it’s only four bloody light years away. I’m sorry, but if you can’t be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that’s your own problem. Energize the demolition beams.
-Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams
—
We only have ourselves to blame. We have been warned.
-OEJ
February 25th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Tom Marking, Rome didn’t collapse in a day either, and in fact the city itself is still there. Sometimes a civilization slowly collapses over the course of a thousand years (or more in the case of Rome). But the Romans are gone none the less, are they not? Now there are Italians (and others) in their place. Same with the Mayans. Maya is gone. They are now Mexican, Guatemalan, Honduran and such.
The fact that a small part of modern pop culture thinks that the Mayan civ collapsed overnight is irrelevant. It DID collapse, it just took it’s time, as most civs do. And if they really did have prophesies, then they should have predicted and prepared for that.
Unless the future is immutable, and then what’s the point of knowing about it? Or even living? If my life is predetermine to failure or success then free will does not exist, and I am just an automation running around on some predestined path. That is not a universe I’d like to live in. It would be a horrifying and torturous place, where everyone had strings attached to them like puppets. Any god that would create such a reality would be unworthy of continued existence.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Some more information:
http://www.d.umn.edu/cla/faculty/troufs/anth3618/video/Lost_Kingdoms.html
Last dated inscriptions:
Palenque: 799 CE
Copan: 819 CE
Caracol: 859 CE
Tikal: 879 CE
So whatever this “collapse” was, it took 80 years to go from Palenque to Tikal. All of these cities are within a couple hundred kilometers of each other.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
As I understand it, the “Mayan calendar scare” (nice name, BTW) is actually a rather apt analogy for Y2K. Not because anything will actually happen in 2012 (unlike Y2K), but because the root cause is very similar.
The Mayans had several systems for reckoning time. Which one they used at any given time depending on how much time they wanted to talk about. For great sweeping chunks of history, they used the long count. I understand it’s a system that seems fiendishly complicated until you start to see the simple mathematics behind it — ultimately, a rather elegant system, apparently. But it’s limited. It has the longest period of any of the Mayan timekeeping systems, counting into the centuries, but it does run out. Mayan scholars disagree on the exact date that it will run out (the Spaniards didn’t helpfully provide a conversion when they conquered the Mayans for synchronization purposes). Conspiracy theorists and the like seem to have latched onto Dec 21, 2012, though, maybe because that date looks slightly apocalyptic in the Gregorian calendar (all those 2s and 1s), which is of course a total coincidence.
The Mayans never had a reason to restart the long count; it lasts plenty long for most purposes. But their other calendars were restarted regularly. It seems reasonable that they (being optimistic, forward-thinking people with, at the time, a tremendously powerful empire) were expecting their descendants to take care of starting the next long count cycle.
How is this similar to Y2K? If one is storing years with only two digits, the calendar runs out after a century. The world doesn’t end; things just look a bit confusing for a while. Not a problem for humans, who understand context, but confusing for computers. (Note: I don’t like the phrase “Y2K bug”, personally, because it wasn’t exactly a bug. It was a design limitation. To non-software-engineers, that may seem like a trivial semantic distinction, but software engineers will understand what I mean.)
The next analogous failure in computing will be the time_t problem, when the data word used to store the number of milliseconds since the beginning of the epoch (frequently 1971) runs out of bits. On many systems, this will occur in 2038 if nothing is done to fix it. It’s a lot more complicated than the Y2K problem, though, as it occurs at a much lower level.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
When my husband and I were in Mexico back in December, we went to a couple of the ruin sites (Chichen Itza and Tulum) and both of the tour guides talked about the end of the Mayan calender a bit. I’ve always enjoyed a bit of folklore.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Considering we still don’t know what happened to the Maya, I think it’s a bit arrogant to say they couldn’t fortell the end of their civilization. Who knows, maybe they saw the Euros coming and preemptively disbanded to make mass extinction much more difficult!
February 25th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
As I posted earlier on a different thread, the 5-digit Mayan Long Count does not reach its end until Thursday, October 12, 4772 CE. There is nothing that is unique to Friday, December 21, 2012 CE that did not also happen the other times that the baktun number rolled over. Here is the complete list of dates:
Gregorian: Monday, August 11, 3114 BCE
Julian: Monday, September 6, 3114 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 0 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, November 13, 2720 BCE
Julian: Thursday, December 6, 2720 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 1 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: February 16, 2325 BCE
Julian: Sunday, March 7, 2325 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 2 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, May 21, 1931 BCE
Julian: Wednesday, June 7, 1931 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 3 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, August 23, 1537 BCE
Julian: Saturday, September 6, 1537 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 4 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: November 26, 1143 BCE
Julian: Tuesday, December 7, 1143 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 5 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Friday, February 28, 748 BCE
Julian: Friday, March 8, 748 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 6 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Monday, June 3, 354 BCE
Julian: Monday, June 8, 354 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 7 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, September 5, 41 CE
Julian: Thursday, September 7, 41 CE
Mayan Long Count: 8 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Sunday, December 9, 435 CE
Julian: Sunday, December 8, 435 CE
Mayan Long Count: 9 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, March 13, 830 CE
Julian: Wednesday, March 9, 830 CE
Mayan Long Count: 10 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, June 15, 1224 CE
Julian: Saturday, June 8, 1224 CE
Mayan Long Count: 11 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Tuesday, September 18, 1618 CE
Julian: Tuesday, September 8, 1618 CE
Mayan Long Count: 12 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Friday, December 21, 2012 CE
Julian: Friday, December 8, 2012 CE
Mayan Long Count: 13 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Monday, March 26, 2407 CE
Julian: Monday, March 10, 2407 CE
Mayan Long Count: 14 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, June 28, 2801 CE
Julian: Thursday, June 9, 2801 CE
Mayan Long Count: 15 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Sunday, October 1, 3195 CE
Julian: Sunday, September 9, 3195 CE
Mayan Long Count: 16 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, January 3, 3590 CE
Julian: Wednesday, December 9, 3589 CE
Mayan Long Count: 17 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, April 7, 3984 CE
Julian: Saturday, March 10, 3984 CE
Mayan Long Count: 18 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Tuesday, July 11, 4378 CE
Julian: Tuesday, June 10, 4378 CE
Mayan Long Count: 19 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, October 12, 4772 CE
Julian: Thursday, September 8, 4772 CE
Mayan Long Count: 19 baktun, 19 katun, 19 tun, 17 uinal, 19 kin
February 25th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Tom Marking, thank you very much for that comment. That actually clarifies this issue better than any other explanation I’ve heard.
Doesn’t the Hindu calendar have some staggeringly long, repeating cycle like this?
February 25th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Thank goodness that I still have my Y2K supplies available. I knew that they’d come in handy. I’m assuming, of course, that the 2012 “end-of-the-world” will not include us folks waiting for the rapture and I’ll have someting to eat while waiting for the REAL end of the world.
February 25th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I wrote, “The Dark Ages is surely when much knowledge was lost.” Barton Paul Levenson wrote, “What knowledge was that, precisely? And how can you tell if it was lost?”
What knowledge was lost, I must have misplaced the answer! (Get the joke?) Books were burned and historical records were mislocated. Of course, though, modern science knows more about the universe than the Mayans or any other more primitive civilization ever could, so whatever scientific knowledge which was lost is probably irrelevant, I would surmise.
February 25th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
“Doesn’t the Hindu calendar have some staggeringly long, repeating cycle like this?”
Not sure how accurate this data is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vedic_timekeeping
“Reckoning of time for Brahma.
1000 Mahayugas = 1 kalpa = 1 day (day only) of Brahma (4,320,000,000 human years).
(Two kalpas constitute a day and night of Brahma)
30 days of Brahma = 1 month of Brahma (259,200,000,000 human years)
12 months of Brahma = 1 year of Brahma (3,110,400,000,000 human years)
50 years of Brahma = 1 Pararddha
2 parardhas = 100 years of Brahma = 1 Para = 1 Mahakalpa
(the lifespan of Brahma)(311,040,000,000,000 human years)
So the dude lives for 311 trillion years which is a longer time scale than modern cosmology uses.
February 25th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Well, the knowledge was lost. So personally I’m not sure we know what it was.
February 25th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
And with that, I have ceased my RSS subscription to the BA Blog.
kthxbye
Perhaps some of the erudite here can explain to me how the Mayan calendar running out of digits is any different than our calendar will be as of 31 December, 9999 ?
Why would anyone consider their calendar to end instead of slapping another column on the front of the year counter and carrying on from 1 (whatever) ?
February 25th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
On december 21st 2012 are we supposed to be in an alignment with the milky way that will cause catastrophy to earth and this alignment only happens i believe i read 26 000 years? will that have any effect on earth? I read pretty deep into the 2012 thing and there are a lot of claims that the world will come to an end as we know it but I don’t have the knowledge to discredit these claims.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
“Perhaps some of the erudite here can explain to me how the Mayan calendar running out of digits is any different than our calendar will be as of 31 December, 9999 ?”
It is no different. The Mayan long count for Friday, October 13, 4772 CE would be: 1 piktun, 0 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin. So they had units above the baktun (namely: piktun, kalabtun, kinchiltun, and alautun). If they used all of these units then their calendar could cover approximately 63 million years of time which is plenty enough for human affairs.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
“What knowledge was that, precisely? And how can you tell if it was lost?”
I’m not sure we can blame all of this on the “Dark Ages” but we do know of lost knowledge. For example, we know from catalogs of books that the ancient Greek playwright Sophocles wrote at least 120 plays during his life. Only seven of them have come down to us intact in complete form:
Ajax
Antigone
Trachinian Women
Oedipus the King
Electra
Philoctetes
Oedipus at Colonus
So we have plenty of intact writings where an author mentions some work by another author which we don’t have. So it’s not just idle speculation, we know that the work once existed and that it doesn’t exist now.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Hey I think folks are being a bit unfair to the Mayans. I dont read any where that the Mayans are claiming armagedon on 21 Dec 2012, it simply ends the current age as they calculated it. Cut em some slack they devised one of the most clever calenders of all time. On a recent trip to Mexico i spoke to a Mayan shaman and asked him his opinion about matters and he said most of what was known about any predictions was long ago lost, and he didnt seem interested in making any predictions. Its the press and sensationalist reporting of our times that makes this stuff up because it sells.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
molc writes:
[[On december 21st 2012 are we supposed to be in an alignment with the milky way that will cause catastrophy to earth and this alignment only happens i believe i read 26 000 years?]]
We’re inside the Milky Way galaxy, so it’s hard to understand how we could be aligned with it. The Earth’s rotational axis precesses once every 25,800 years, but there are no catastrophes associated with that that I’m aware of.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
BTW, Probably most of you are too young to remember the previous version of this nonsense. This is not the first time that the “New Age” movement has invoked Mayan calendrics to prophesy the beginning of a new age. Back in August of 1987 there was the Harmonic Convergence nonsense which I had the misfortune to experience. I lived in New Mexico at the time and a throng of New Age goofballs led by Shirley MacLaine descended on Chaco Canyon to usher in the new age. They camped out and awaited the sunrise while chanting their mantras - Uummmm, Uummmm, … (or as I imagined it: Dummmmb, Dummmb, …).
Wikipedia has a pretty good entry on the nonsense:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonic_Convergence
There were attempts to start a rival movement known as the Harmonica Convergence but we could never get enough good harmonica players together to compete with the other side’s lunacy.
BTW, Most of the participants of the Harmonic Convergence claim to this day that it was their chanting and carrying on which led to the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, etc., etc.
February 25th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
I believe that the Mayans predicted that the world would be reborn once this particular calendar cycle ended, which, incidentally, falls on one of my friend’s birthdays.
And yeah, we lost a lot of data on the Maya. One Spanish monk in a fit of rage burned most of the books in one of their libraries, for example.
However, the fact that we have better knowledge of astronomical entities and calendars aught to tip people to the fact that we’d know if the world was ending any time soon, even if it has no basis in spirituality or something.
February 25th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
thanks Barton Paul Levenson,
to rephrase my question because of my lack of understanding where inside the milky way galaxy. But what i read was……
“On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years(Milky Way is one of billions of galaxies in the observable universe. The Galaxy has special significance to humanity as it is the home galaxy of the planet Earth). This special alignment means that the usual energy that typically streams to Earth from the center of the Milky Way will indeed be disrupted on 12/21/12 2012 at 11:11 p.m. Universal time.”
maybe i should of read the parenthesis BUT…
Would this have an ill affect on earth or is this just false information.
I read it on 2012explained.com, which is a website that explaines why 2012 shouldnt be feared.
February 25th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
My HP-48gx calendar program told me that there is a 2013 and
higher year. Although it did start screaming around 2014.
February 25th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
It is no different. The Mayan long count for Friday, October 13, 4772 CE would be: 1 piktun, 0 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin. So they had units above the baktun (namely: piktun, kalabtun, kinchiltun, and alautun). If they used all of these units then their calendar could cover approximately 63 million years of time which is plenty enough for human affairs.
The real question is… would the Mayans have had people running around spreading Y1Piktun FUD and making boatloads of money off that FUD.
February 25th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Please, please, please do this — I’m a grad student volunteer on a site where the public can submit astronomy questions & have them answered. We get so many 2012 questions it’s hard to keep up, and while some of them are along the lines of, “My friends told me that blah blah blah . . . ” a lot of them are more difficult to respond to. Like the one from the young mother who didn’t want her children to die. A solid debunking for the non-astronomer (and non-enthusiast) is needed . . .
February 25th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
The calendar just rolls over. Like a pretty long year. A VERY long year.
February 25th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I predict a new book coming out, and as stated before me laughing my @$$ off.
February 25th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
As I understand the Mayan woo. They actually said nothing of an end in 2012, that is just the last day on their calender. Modern woo authors have added the “it will be the end” idiocy. The Mayans probably expected to get around to making new calendars when the need arose. The ones that kept time in their culture did so to impress the rulers and the masses. I am sure they got a nice cushy life while doing this work, the same way that people making “predictions” do today. I am pretty sure they sold it to them with the same tricks. We know how the human mind tends to latch on to predictions that come true, then forget all the mistaken ones. I really do not think that the Mayans were more advanced that us, unless you count human sacrifice and games that end in death as “advanced”.
February 25th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
“On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years”
There is a radio source called Sagittarius A which is located at the center of our galaxy. According to Wikipedia its coordinates are as follows:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagittarius_A%2A
Right ascension: 17h 45m 40.045s
Declination: ?29° 0? 27.9?
At the winter solstice the sun will have a declination of -23deg 27′ so that’s off by 5.5 degrees (for comparison the angular distance between the two stars at the front of the Big Dipper is about 5 degrees) and that’s not including the right ascension calculation. So that’s some kind of alignment. It’s off by at least 5.5 degrees if not more. So the whole idea is completely bogus.
February 25th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Earth Orbit: Tun (18 x 20) = 360 days
Sun Rotation: Tzolkin (26 x 10) = 260 days
• Three (3) calendar rounds of 13, 18, 20 synchronize interlocking 234, 260, 360 day cycles.
• The Tun tracked the Sun rotation = 26 days x 10 = 260 day calendar.
• The Tzolkin tracked the Earth = 36 x 10 = 360 day calendar.
10 x 26 = 260 = 10 Solar Rotations each 26 Earth days
20 x 18 = 360 = 1 Earth Solar Orbit (degrees)
13 x 18 = 234 = Tun & Tzolkin synchronization (20^n); Mercury (117 days orbit)
It takes 13 tun for the Sun rotation of (26 days x 10 x 18) = 4,680 days
to align with the Earth (360 days x 13 ) = 4,680 days = 13 tun
Sun and Moon | 7 days per week
28 x 13 = 364; (moon orbit)
14 x 26 = 364; (sun rotation)
52 x 7 = 364; (7 ÷ evenly into 364)
364 Sun/Moon Cycles:
= 28 day Moon/Earth Orbit (10,192 days ÷ 28)
= 26 day Sun Rotation (9,464 days ÷ 26)
for the Solar rotation and Lunar orbit.
Fractal Invert/Recursion:
(10192/28/360) = 91/90
(9464/26/360) = 91/90
Dividing both by 20:
Tzolkin (260 / 20) = 13
Tun (360 / 20) = 18
13 x 18 = 234 days.
(Please excuse in advance the obvious redundancy).
Tun: ((18 x 20) x 20^(n=0-7) x 13)
Tzolkin ((13 x 20) x 20^(n=0-7) x 18)
1. Start dates for each new level are far apart;
2. Previous levels continue as each new level is added;
3. All 9 levels coterminous.
9 Level:
260 ÷ 20 = 13 x 18 = 234 days
360 ÷ 20 = 18 x 13 = 234 days
8 Level:
260 x 18 = 4,680 days
360 x 13 = 4,680 days
234 x 20 = 4,680 days
7 Level:
260 x 20 x 18 = 93,600 days
360 x 20 x 13 = 93,600 days
234 x 20 x 20 = 93,600 days
6 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 1,872,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 1,872,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 1,872,000 days
5 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 37,440,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 37,440,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 37,440,000 days
4 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 748,800,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 748,800,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 748,800,000 days
3 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 14,976,000,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 14,976,000,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 14,976,000,000 days
2 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 299,520,000,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 299,520,000,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 299,520,000,000 days
1 Level:
260 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 18 = 5,990,400,000,000 days
360 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 13 = 5,990,400,000,000 days
234 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 x 20 = 5,990,400,000,000 days
Cellular Days = Tun & Tzolkin Years:
5,990,400,000,000 ÷ 260 = 23,040,000,000 (260 Day) Sun Cycles
5,990,400,000,000 ÷ 360 = 16,640,000,000 (360 Day) Earth Cycles
5,990,400,000,000 ÷ 234 = 25,600,000,000 (234 Day) Cycles
234 Relevant Factors:
234 x 1 = 234;
117 x 2 = 234;
78 x 3 = 234;
39 x 6 = 234;
26 x 9 = 234;
13 x 18 = 234;
18 x 13 = 234;
260 Relevant Factors:
260 x 1 = 260;
130 x 2 = 260;
65 x 4 = 260
52 x 5 = 260
26 x 10 =260
13 x 20 = 260;
20 x 13 = 260;
360 Relevant Factors:
360 x 1 = 360;
180 x 2 = 360;
120 x 3 = 360;
90 x 4 = 360;
72 x 5 = 360
60 x 6 = 360;
45 x 8 = 360
40 x 9 = 360;
36 x 10 = 360;
30 x 12 = 360;
20 x 18 = 360;
18 x 20 = 360;
Notes on [234 - 260 - 360]:
• None ÷ by 7;
• All ÷ by 2;
• Only 260 & 360 both ÷ by 4, 5;
• Only 360 ÷ by 8;
• 260 does not ÷ by 3, 6, or 9;
• Of the numbers [13-18-20] none divide evenly into the others;
• There are no common denominators.
• Dr. Carl Johann Callemans books “Solving the Greatest Mystery of our Time: The Mayan Calendar” (1999) and “Transformation of Consciousness” (2004) are the sources of the integrated calendrical system shown above.
• The mayan calendar masters thesis with the orbital analysis and comparison here in PDF http://www.mayaexploration.org/pdf/A…0Astronomy.pdf
Download a 65 page PDF file which shows exactly how all of the cycles and counts of days were all counting days as they tracked orbits of the earth, sun, moon, mercury, venus, mars, saturn, transits, and many other of the movements in motion in the solar system in the Milky Way Galaxy in the universe.
This barely scratches the surface; lots more if anyone is interested.
Thanks, Drew Terry
February 25th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
“10 x 26 = 260 = 10 Solar Rotations each 26 Earth days”
So now the Mayans were measuring the rotation period of the sun? By looking at sunspots? As you are probably aware, the sun is not a rigid body and so the rotation period increases with solar latitude.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation
At the equator the rotation period is 25.38 days but that’s with respect to the fixed stars. Relative to observers on the earth it would be 27.28 days.
The following table shows the values for various latitudes:
Latitude Sidereal Rotation Period Synodic Rotation Period
——– ————————- ————————
0 deg 25.38 days 27.28 days
15 deg 25.63 days 27.56 days
30 deg 26.32 days 28.36 days
45 deg 27.31 days 29.52 days
60 deg 28.39 days 30.78 days
Thus, the rotation periods of sunspots that are observable from the earth are off from 26 days by 1.28 to 4.78 days depending upon the solar latitude of the sunspot. If the Mayans were indeed observing sunspots they would not have used 26 days as any kind of period associated with the solar rotation.
February 25th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Ok, I have an email accout that only ever gets astronomy and scoutcraft messages. No astrology. And no nonsense. So I just saw the following wierdo add …
“2012 Planet X Collides” with references to Nostradamus, a web site and a book.
Sigh …
A certain free email provider should CLEAN UP THEIR SPY FILTERS.
What crap.
Now I feel better.
Mang
February 25th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Some people may find this site interesting and perhaps even amusing:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/calendar/
It converts dates between a number of calendric systems including the
Mayan with a brief explanation of each calendar. On the Mayan calendar he says:
“The Mayans believed at at the conclusion of each pictun cycle of about 7,885 years the universe is destroyed and re-created. Those with apocalyptic inclinations will be relieved to observe that the present cycle will not end until Columbus Day, October 12, 4772 in the Gregorian calendar. ”
George
February 25th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Like I said before, the galactic center is at:
Right Ascension: 17h 45m 40.045s
Declination: -29deg 0′ 27.9″
I went and looked in my astronomical almanac for the position of the Sun on December 21, 2001:
RA: 17h 56m 24.92s
Dec: -23deg 26′ 11.7″
So that’s off by 5.57 degrees vertically and 2.69 degrees horizontally which is 6.19 degrees total. IMHO that’s a very poor alignment. Now I know someone is going to claim that 2012 is different. Well the declination alignment won’t be any different and the precession shift would only be (11/25800)*360 = 0.15 degrees so it’s still crummy alignment. So the whole assertion of a galactic center alignment is entirely bogus.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Well, quite independently of tha Mayans, I predicted that Microsoft will be on _LESS_ than 50% of all computers, excluding PDA’s. mobile phones, and Linux apliances, by the end of 2012.
-Nivag
February 26th, 2008 at 12:00 am
The Wikipedia article has a rather good discussion and debunking of the whole nonsense. The short form (emphasis added):
For fecks sake, the calendar in question did not run out of digits. Nothing is going to happen except another arbitrary measurement system will increment a large counter. And there are Mayan inscriptions with dates after 2012.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:03 am
Aaarrrgggghh! Phil, you really really really REALLY need a “Preview” operation!
What I was trying to emphasize in the above quote was the phrase “… followed by the start of the thirteenth b’ak’tun, 13.0.0.0.0, on December 21, 2012.”
February 26th, 2008 at 1:00 am
Tom wrote: So now the Mayans were measuring the rotation period of the sun? By looking at sunspots?
Thanks for asking, Tom.
I have no idea if they were tracking rotation by sunspots or some other aspect of which we may not be aware. The origin of the Mayan calendar is attributed to their predecessors, the Olmec’s, whose culture dates back to at least 1200 B.C. - although any dates calculated to correspond with the gregorian calendar are haphazard at best. The gregorian calendar was not instituted until after Cortez conquered Mesoamerica in 1519, it took 2 Pope Gregorys a total of 655 years before the new gregorian was by papal bull to replace the julian, which by then was over 10 days behind.
My feeling is that the math speaks for itself, and it is to each our own choice of interpretation and/or significance attributed to it. I am amazed at how accurately the math synchronizes the orbits of all the planets in the solar system.
As for the 260 day (13×20) calendar, if they were not tracking the sun I don’t know what else it would be. The culture traditionally worshipped the sun as the source of life itself. Lacking any plausible alternatives, and given the mathematical complexity, I doubt that it was anything but the sun.
In any case, it is as it is. Take what you will and leave the rest. At least from my point of view I do not defend or argue my interpretation. Besides, what I think makes no difference - it is only a matter of what each one of us believes that counts.
As Einstein once said, “Not everything that counts, can be counted; not everything that can be counted, counts.”
February 26th, 2008 at 3:48 am
Now THIS is what I call a can of worms! =) I’ll be very thankful for a thorough debunking in plain language - I know that 2012 is a load of poo, but I am not well spoken enough to convince any of my weird friends and family.
February 26th, 2008 at 6:26 am
molC writes:
[[“On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years(Milky Way is one of billions of galaxies in the observable universe. The Galaxy has special significance to humanity as it is the home galaxy of the planet Earth). This special alignment means that the usual energy that typically streams to Earth from the center of the Milky Way will indeed be disrupted on 12/21/12 2012 at 11:11 p.m. Universal time.”
maybe i should of read the parenthesis BUT…
Would this have an ill affect on earth or is this just false information.]]
It’s false information. There’s nothing about that date that makes us any more “aligned” with the center of the Milky Way Galaxy than on any other date.
Possibly the writer was thinking about the Sun traveling through the midplane of the galaxy, which it does once in about every 26 million years. Back in the 1980s, there was some thought that this might trigger comet impacts from the outer solar system. But I don’t think the theory held up when they looked into it more closely.
The Sun is now about 800 light-years “above” the mid-plane, according to the Gliese Catalogue of Nearby Stars, so it will take at least 800 years — probably more — to get there. December 2012 is less than four years away.
February 26th, 2008 at 6:40 am
Just reminding everyone….this is only FOUR YEARS AND TEN MONTHS AWAY!!!
February 26th, 2008 at 7:03 am
Yoiks!
I’m fairly sure that the only thing that might cause harm in 2012 is our own rampant anticipation of “some event” but I’m no Hari Seldon.
For that matter, we can confidently “predict” the destruction of the planet via stringent scientific study (the Earth will be vaporized by the Sun in 7.6 billion years) yet we can’t predict the future of Earth’s life.
Within a billion years, descendants of homo-sapiens might just find a way to propagate outward out of necessity. Our instincts instruct us to retreat from fire. Sol’s red giant phase will be no different.
That said, we may be smart enough to predict the real end of the world but predicting our own self-destruction is presently beyond our capabilities.
Adding myself to the RSS feed.
February 26th, 2008 at 8:22 am
A quick astronomy question, vaguely related to all this…
The plane of the earth’s orbit is tilted at some odd angle relative to the plane of the sun’s orbit around the galactic centre, yes? Does anyone know what that angle is?
I’ve always had the impression it’s quite large (10’s of degrees vs some fraction of a degree).
February 26th, 2008 at 8:26 am
and if the ancient Mayans were so good at prophecy, then why didn’t they foretell the collapse of their own civilization?
Well, actually… Cortez did show up at the time they had foretold for the return of Quetzalcoatl, on a day of really bad omen. Quite a remarkable co-incidence, really.
February 26th, 2008 at 8:54 am
I thought the “where are they now?” remark was an obscure “Spinal Tap” reference.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“The plane of the earth’s orbit is tilted at some odd angle relative to the plane of the sun’s orbit around the galactic centre, yes? Does anyone know what that angle is?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_coordinate_system
“the north galactic pole at 12h51m26.282s +27°07?42.01?
So the galactic plane is tilted 62.9 degrees relative to the Earth’s equatorial plane.
The plane of the earth’s orbit is tilted 23.5 degrees relative to the equatorial plane so the angle between the galactic plane and the plane of the earth’s orbit will be somewhat different.
http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/G/Galactic+Plane
“The galactic plane is tilted at an angle of 63 degrees to the celestial equator. Since the ecliptic (the path of the Sun on the sky) is inclined at an angle of 23.5 degrees to the celestial equator, the galactic plane and the ecliptic are nearly at right angles (63 + 23.5 = 86.5 degrees), although this is purely coincidental.”
February 26th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Correction: It took 65 years, from 1519 to 1584 A.D., for Pope Gregory to introduce the gregorian calendar as the new & improved compared to the julian calendar.
The julian calendar was instituted in 46 B.C. to account for monthly payments:
calendar
• a system by which the beginning, length, and subdivisions of the year are fixed. See also Jewish calendar, Julian calendar, Gregorian calendar.
ORIGIN Middle English : from Old French calendier, from Latin kalendarium ‘account book,’ from kalendae (see calends)
calends
the first day of the month in the ancient Roman calendar.
ORIGIN Old English (denoting an appointed time) : from Old French calendes, from Latin kalendae, calendae ‘first day of the month’ (when accounts were due and the order of days was proclaimed); related to Latin calare and Greek kalein ‘call, proclaim.’
The whole world now depends entirely on the gregorian calendar; for commerce, business, schedules, transactions, payments and records, predictability is essential to the order and function of society.
However, should the gregorian calendar be exclusive to any other calendar or method of tracking days in time?
Consider the question in the context of the alternatives for the word calendar:
calendar
a calendar of events
1. schedule
2. agenda
3. almanac
4. diary
5. program
6. annual
7. yearbook.
I believe the calendar is our currency of consciousness.
The calendar orients our collective consciousness - just like money orients consciousness of commerce, or commercial consciousness, the calendar is another form of currency in which we exclude as much as include awareness certain aspects of life.
So much for a quick correction - thanks.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Dunc writes:
[[ ***and if the ancient Mayans were so good at prophecy, then why didn’t they foretell the collapse of their own civilization?***
Well, actually… Cortez did show up at the time they had foretold for the return of Quetzalcoatl, on a day of really bad omen. Quite a remarkable co-incidence, really.]]
Weren’t the guys worshipping Quetlcoatl Aztecs, rather than Mayans, and weren’t they doing it 700 years later? The Mayan civilization collapsed in the 9th century. The Spaniards invaded in the 16th.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“The plane of the earth’s orbit is tilted at some odd angle relative to the plane of the sun’s orbit around the galactic centre, yes? Does anyone know what that angle is?”
http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/G/Galactic+Plane
The galactic plane is tilted at an angle of 63 degrees to the celestial equator. Since the ecliptic (the path of the Sun on the sky) is inclined at an angle of 23.5 degrees to the celestial equator, the galactic plane and the ecliptic are nearly at right angles (63 + 23.5 = 86.5 degrees), although this is purely coincidental.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:10 am
“I am amazed at how accurately the math synchronizes the orbits of all the planets in the solar system.”
Yes, I too find it truly amazing what kind of correlations you can come up with in the Mayan calendar when you twist the facts to suit your pre-conceived notion. Sort of like the 26-day solar rotation period which is actually more than 27 days. Truly amazing coincidence!
February 26th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Before fact and fantasy get too intermingled, the 2012 date points to a “shift” in the ages. However others interpret this “shift”, i.e. apocalypse etc. a rapid shift in consciousness in underway, evident by several factors:
Technology - profound acceleration in computing power (who forsaw 8 core processors on a desktop unit just 5 years ago?)
Rapid Globalization in Industry/Commerce
Global Warming - extreme shifts in the Ice fields - no one knows to what reality this is headed, however, there is no denying it’s underway
Pole Shift - the Earth’s magnetic field is reversing (won’t be the first time or last)
Internet connectivity - rapid spread of information (more globalization)
Expanded awareness of the Cosmos - we now perceive more of the Universe via imagery from telescopes, satellites
Children - today’s young ones are quite fast in every respect. Their rapid grasp of technology points to a more evolved nervous system - can telepathy be next?
All of the above has occurred within the past 10 to 20 years. To me, the above points to rapid change. I say “fasten your seatbelt” and get ready for an amazing ride into uncertainty.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:06 am
“Well, actually… Cortez did show up at the time they had foretold for the return of Quetzalcoatl, on a day of really bad omen. Quite a remarkable co-incidence, really.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quetzalcoatl
It has been widely believed that the Aztec Emperor Moctezuma II initially believed the landing of Hernán Cortés in 1521 to be Quetzalcoatl’s return. This has been questioned by many ethnohistorians (e.g. Matthew Restall 2001) who argue that the Quetzalcoatl-Cortés connection is asserted in no documents created independently of post-Conquest Spanish influence, and that there is little proof of a pre-Hispanic belief in Quetzalcoatl’s return. Most documents expounding this theory are of entirely Spanish origin, such as Cortés’s letters to Charles V of Spain, in which Cortés goes to great pains to present the naïve gullibility of the Mexicans in general as a great aid in his conquest of Mexico.
February 26th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
For more info on 2012 go to http://www.2012Videos.com
For everything needed to survive 2012 visit http://www.2012supplies.com
February 27th, 2008 at 5:00 am
Don’t take my word for it. I’m not asking anyone to believe me.
Take a look at this 65 page masters thesis for an in-depth analysis of the math and the orbits of the planets in the solar system.
• The mayan calendar masters thesis with the orbital analysis and comparison here in PDF:
http://www.mayaexploration.org/pdf/A…0Astronomy.pdf
If one is determined to find fault, one can fault anything they find.
I don’t believe anything we are told about anything to do with history, all of history is a lie to some extent.
I do believe that whatever is repeated over and over trying to convince me to believe (i.e. Cortez or the Pope or Quetzcoatl) that I have to ask myself, ‘why is it so important that I believe what they want me to believe?’
Who is asking you to believe?
Who will benefit if you accept and believe it?
February 27th, 2008 at 5:30 am
“The Maya have always conceptualized time as cyclical. Individual small cycles combine to create larger cycles.
For example, the small cycles of 13 and 20 days combine to form the 260 day cycle. Large cycles are combined with others to create even larger cycles.
Over the last decade, researchers have demonstrated that the enormous time increments recorded in the Dresden are the lowest common multiples (LCM) shared by smaller cycles. For example, a large distance number in the Dresden’s Venus Pages, long count 9.9.16.0.0, has been shown to be equally divisible by most of the important Maya astronomical and calendrical cycles (Aveni 1980:192).
The distance number totals 1,366,560 days.
Cycles which evenly divide into it include:
1. the Tzolk’in (260 days)
2. the Tun (360 days)
3. the solar year (365 days)
4. the Venus synodic period (584 days)
5. the Mars synodic period (780 days)
6. the correction factor of the Venus tables (2,340 days)
7. the Venus/solar period (2,920 days), and
8. the Calendar Round (18,980 days or 52 years).
The important realization to be gathered from the above example is that 9.9.16.0.0, called by Lounsbury “the super number” (1978), does not track each of the planetary cycles involved in its multiples. Rather, the numbers which identify the cycles, 584 for Venus, 780 for Mars, etc.., are abstracted into ritually significant numerological constants.
While the numbers are derived from the observation of natural cycles, their combinations to create larger cycles of time are removed from skywatching. The Maya calendar is largely the result of a system of numerology based on intervals gathered through astronomy.
As was done by the Cult of Pythagoras in ancient Greece, the Maya removed the numbers revealed by natural phenomena and investigated their mathematical patterns, searching for the underlying order of the universe.
By employing a calendrical system based on astronomical cycles, the Maya created a mirror through which the days on Earth reflect the sacred order of the cosmos, as gathered from the motions of the heavens.”
Page 121, “The First Twenty-Three Pages of the Dresden Codex: The Divination Pages” by Edwin L. Barnhart, © 2005.
http://www.mayaexploration.org/pdf/DresdenCodex1-23.pdf
February 27th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I am enormously impressed by the numerical relations in the Mayan calendar. Here’s another one which is just as spooky — if you look at the photos of pyramids in the Cydonia region of Mars, any three of them form a triangle! If that doesn’t prove that aliens built the Great Pyramid at Gizeh, I don’t know what does.
February 27th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Numbers are numbers.
If they mean pyramids on Mars to you, I can’t stop you.
Be my Cydonian guest.
February 27th, 2008 at 9:49 am
“Cycles which evenly divide into it include:
1. the Tzolk’in (260 days)
2. the Tun (360 days)
3. the solar year (365 days)
4. the Venus synodic period (584 days)
5. the Mars synodic period (780 days)
6. the correction factor of the Venus tables (2,340 days)
7. the Venus/solar period (2,920 days), and
8. the Calendar Round (18,980 days or 52 years).”
I find it interesting that the supposed 26-day solar rotation period has now disappeared from the list. BTW, what about the planets Mercury, Jupiter, and Saturn which also would have been observable by the Maya? They have synodic periods of approximately 116 days, 399 days, and 378 days, respectively. Oh, and BTW, 1,366,560 is divisible by none of these numbers.
February 27th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
It wasn’t a “prophecy”.
As you mention in
http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2008/02/08/mayan-holiday/
in Gia’s post
http://www.giagia.co.uk/?p=249
and in other posts it’s explained that mayans had 2 kind of calendars: cyclic and non-cyclic.
This particular calendar (the one that “stops” in our 2012) just means that they ran out of symbols or numbers.
The “odometer” has used all its digits and it rolls to 0000000 again.
If someone deduces from this that the world is gonna end that day, it’s up to him. But I don’t think the Mayans were making a prophecy with this.
February 27th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Tom Marking wrote: “26-day solar rotation period has now disappeared from the list.”
26 x 10 = 260 x 5256 = 1366560
“BTW, 1,366,560 is divisible by none of these numbers.”
1366560 ÷
1. 260 = 5256
2. 360 = 3796
3. 365 = 3744
4. 584 = 2340
5. 780 = 1752
6. 2340 = 584
7. 2920 = 468
8. 18980 = 72
9. 26280 = 52
“BTW, what about the planets Mercury, Jupiter, and Saturn which also would have been observable by the Maya? They have synodic periods of approximately 116 days, 399 days, and 378 days, respectively.”
116, 378 and/or 399 do not divide evenly into 1366560.
March 1st, 2008 at 4:59 pm
[…] more at Bad Astronomy, at Gia’s blog. Agradeço à Joyce pela […]
March 1st, 2008 at 9:09 pm
BA,
Roland Emmerich is also the writer/director of the same Godzilla movie that you were raving about a while back.
March 10th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
I’ll be honest and admit that this 2012 thing has kept my mind busy for some time now. I understand that this may very well be another hoax to freak out people and appreciate the effort of debunking it, but it seems that you guys forget that the principal claim of that theory is not really about mayans but about a load of different stories written in different parts of the world in different times telling pointing at December 2012.
I’d really appreciate it if you could talk about those other stories as well. I’ve seen some on http://www.december212012.com/ but maybe there are more, who knows.
Looking at the index of the website, it does look like it’s a big pile of crap but I don’t know if all those stories really did point to 2012 or if all of this is made up.
April 7th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Seamyston 25 Feb 2008 at 9:40 am: (and many others)
“Phil, I know your throwaway comment about “where are the Mayans now?” was meant as a joke, but really, it could be seen as offensive. Mayan descendants are still very much alive today - google “modern Maya” and you’ll see what I mean.”
Anyone here learn to read? He said “why didnt they predict the fall of their own civilization?” A perfectly logical question. Their civilization collapsed, that is a known fact (it isnt here anymore, and we know when it fell), and they obviously didnt predict it. How if that offensive? It is actually the first question a person should ask in the face of these predictions.
April 7th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Again I ask, how if that offensive?
May 14th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Considering the ACTUAL end date would be 21 October 4772 (I’m hoping for some sort of race-annihilating super-weapon to be used) I’m not going to sweat 2012.
July 15th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
[…] Sometimes, I almost hope the world will end in 2012. Or earlier. It’ll save me from finding out things like Michael Bay is going to make a movie based on the 2012 nonsense. This is on top of Roland Emmerich’s efforts. […]
July 16th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Drew Terry, I’m fairly sure you don’t mean “26 x 10 = 260 x 5256 = 1366560″…