Very soon, I hope, I will be posting the be-all end-all debunking of the utter nonsense surrounding the idea that the year 2012 will bring disaster to us all… because the Mayan calendar ends then. Hint: it doesn’t. This is a total fabrication.
But until then, please read my friend Gia’s post on this silliness, which is one of the better debunkings of the 2012 nonsense I’ve seen.
If you went to BadAstronomy.com and found yourself here, never fear: the BA Blog has moved to its new home at Discover Blogs. The original BA site (with the Moon Hoax debunking and all that) is still online, too.
Phil Plait, the creator of Bad Astronomy, is an astronomer, lecturer, and author. After ten years working on Hubble Space Telescope and six more working on astronomy education, he struck out on his own as a writer. He has written two books, dozens of magazine articles, and 12 bazillion blog articles. He is a skeptic, and fights misuses of science as well as praising the wonder of real science.
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"Reading this book is like getting punched in the face by Carl Sagan. Frightening, but oddly exhilarating."
-- Daniel H. Wilson, author of How to Survive a Robot Uprising
DISCOVERmagazine.com: Latest Articles on Space DISCOVER Blogs: The Loom
February 8th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
The Mayans were wiped out how many hundreds of years ago? Obviously they weren’t all that smart or they’d still be here.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Phil, why are all the women’s sites you link to so hawt?
February 8th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
There is not just the Mayan calender that predicts the end of the world in 2012. There is all the crossing the galactic plane nonsense. I know I will be laughing very hard in 2012.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
You’re going to feel silly in 2013 with civilization gone, the earth a lifeless rock, and the winds blowing your ashes silently whispering “I told you so”.
Awfully silly.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
@Roaldfalcon: DUN DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUUUUN!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously.
Silly.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
The Wikipedian World Wisdom has already debunked the story a while ago: The Long Count calendar does not end at all on that infamous 2012 December day, it’s just the beginning of the thirteenth b’ak’tun - and there are inscriptions referring to dates beyond this point. A leading Maya scholar is teaching right here in Bonn, Germany - so if more questions arise …
February 8th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Phil, I truly wish I could believe that your posting will be the be-all and end-all of this Mayan doomsday garbage. But it won’t be. Even after 2012 there will still be loopy fools that will think they have cracked the (insert ancient civilisation of your choice here) calender and KNOW that the world will end in 2020, or 2047, or 2525, or……
February 8th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Wow- Gia does a mean Blog. That was one of the best skeptic articles I’ve read in a while. Very clear, very to the point and fun to read.
The BA’s blog however is definitely going downhill. For instance, he’s omitted to include a large jpeg of Gia to go with the above post. I like to know what a blogger looks like, and a picture would have been most helpful.
(The fact that Gia may be quite good looking has nothing to do with my request. Anyway, apparently she married some loser who’s never going anywhere in his career- Cern Physicist, Rock star, science advisor to Sci-Fi movies etc. Like I said- loser.)
February 8th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
You FOOLS! My Life In Hell Calendar runs out in December 2008! The end is nearer that you think!
February 8th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Zomg…that’s Brian Cox’s wife! I have a huge man-crush on Brian Cox…and his wife.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Speaking of Cern have they created the black hole that was suppose end the world yet.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Christian, you mean like this one?
February 8th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
BA: Yes. Thanks, now I remember.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Great!! I’ll have one more URL to refer people to when someone asks me about this. I’m a Maya archaeologist, BTW
In the mean time, if you’re going to do things right, Phil, could I ask you to use the term “Maya” instead of “Mayan”, when referring to anything but the language?
E.g.,
There are multiple Mayan languages spoken today in the countries of Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Belize.
The ancient Maya civilization is known for it’s pyramids, elaborate hieroglyphs, and the world-famous Maya calendar.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
So, any bets on the next “End of the World” date once 2012 comes and goes?
There is the (Y2038 problem but it will still be too far off to worry even the most credulous and it doesn’t have the end-of-the-millennium sexiness that Y2K had.
For the greatest amount of woo-iness (i.e. far enough away to develop enough scary scenarios and to profit from the resulting fearmongering), it’ll probably have to be between 2020 and 2025, but I can’t think of any significant dates they can glom on within that range.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
One of the commenters on that page got pretty sniffy about Cern not providing any useful science.
Gia’s reply is nothing short of brilliance:
———————————————————————————-
Do you realise that the only reason you are able to talk to me at the moment is because of something developed for the LAST experiment at CERN? One young physicist decided to create an easy way of allowing physicists to read and reference each others’ work. You know what he called it?
The World Wide Web.
Any idea of the other things that have come out of ‘blue skies’ physics research? Medical imagining scans. PET scans. DVD players. CD players. Just to name a few.
So, sure maybe the WWW, DVD players and CD players didn’t solve any *problems* per se, but I’d say the medical advancements alone have been pretty useful to many people. What do you think?
Of course, if you choose to continue to NOT believe in science then I invite you to just stop using the web, watching films, listening to music and getting medical treatments. I just don’t see how you can have it both ways. These things don’t exist because of magic, you know.
So what will it be? I guess if I never hear from you again it will mean that you’ve decided NOT to accept science. And that’s fair enough.
———————————————————————————
Is she great or what? Someone nominate Gia for an award or something.
February 8th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Of course 2012 IS a Presidential election year in the U.S.
February 8th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Lugosi: “The Mayans were wiped out how many hundreds of years ago” sorry, not. there are millions of mayas living right now in Hounduras, Belice, Guatemala (80%) and South Mexico! don’t you know who Subcomandante Marcos is?
mr. phil plait: please more articles like this. there is not only the danger from the “creationist”. there is also U.F.O.s (The History Channell had aired a lot of programs confirming they existence…) astrology, etc. etc.
February 8th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
The next major doomsday prediction will be when the Gregorian calendar ends on 31 Dec 9999.
February 8th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Alexander: Try using the search box. The Bad Astronomer’s been around for a long time and he’s covered all of the topics you mention.
February 8th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
From my own blog, Nov. 2005…
http://theropod.livejournal.com/86538.html
February 8th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Christian X. Burnham: yes, you are right, but a new article once a month, it’ll be welcome…
February 8th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
So, sure maybe the WWW, DVD players and CD players didn’t solve any *problems* per se,
They sure were a boost to the porn industry though. I’m surprised Ron Jeremy isn’t shilling for the LHC or something.
February 8th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
While there appears to be a bit of uncertainty in the data (just to confuse the credulous, of course), I’ll just bet we run out of IPv4 addresses on 21 Dec 2012 (see http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html). Coincidence? I think not!
February 8th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
I have it on good authority that earth will end when humans have no furthur use for it,,,say, in about 22,000,000 years. It seems we’re gonna turn the entire mass into space colonies,,,eventually,,,
By the way, if the MAya were so smart at predictions, how come they didn’t know the infamous WHITE MEN were coming???
GAry 7
February 8th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Perhaps the Maya did, and this woo woo obsession was their revenge (no slight to my Aztec ancestors).
February 8th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Gee, everybody knows that the world’s not going to end on December 20, 2012 - the end of the 12th baktun, but rather October 12, 4772 CE - the end of the 19th baktun. That’s when the real bad word deleted is going to hit the fan.
FYI,
Here are the dates of the beginning of the Maya baktuns. As far as I am aware, nothing remarkable happened when the 11th baktun ended on September 17th, 1618 CE.
Gregorian: Monday, August 11, 3114 BCE
Julian: Monday, September 6, 3114 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 0 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, November 13, 2720 BCE
Julian: Thursday, December 6, 2720 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 1 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: February 16, 2325 BCE
Julian: Sunday, March 7, 2325 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 2 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, May 21, 1931 BCE
Julian: Wednesday, June 7, 1931 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 3 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, August 23, 1537 BCE
Julian: Saturday, September 6, 1537 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 4 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: November 26, 1143 BCE
Julian: Tuesday, December 7, 1143 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 5 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Friday, February 28, 748 BCE
Julian: Friday, March 8, 748 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 6 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Monday, June 3, 354 BCE
Julian: Monday, June 8, 354 BCE
Mayan Long Count: 7 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, September 5, 41 CE
Julian: Thursday, September 7, 41 CE
Mayan Long Count: 8 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Sunday, December 9, 435 CE
Julian: Sunday, December 8, 435 CE
Mayan Long Count: 9 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, March 13, 830 CE
Julian: Wednesday, March 9, 830 CE
Mayan Long Count: 10 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, June 15, 1224 CE
Julian: Saturday, June 8, 1224 CE
Mayan Long Count: 11 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Tuesday, September 18, 1618 CE
Julian: Tuesday, September 8, 1618 CE
Mayan Long Count: 12 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Friday, December 21, 2012 CE
Julian: Friday, December 8, 2012 CE
Mayan Long Count: 13 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Monday, March 26, 2407 CE
Julian: Monday, March 10, 2407 CE
Mayan Long Count: 14 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, June 28, 2801 CE
Julian: Thursday, June 9, 2801 CE
Mayan Long Count: 15 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Sunday, October 1, 3195 CE
Julian: Sunday, September 9, 3195 CE
Mayan Long Count: 16 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Wednesday, January 3, 3590 CE
Julian: Wednesday, December 9, 3589 CE
Mayan Long Count: 17 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Saturday, April 7, 3984 CE
Julian: Saturday, March 10, 3984 CE
Mayan Long Count: 18 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Tuesday, July 11, 4378 CE
Julian: Tuesday, June 10, 4378 CE
Mayan Long Count: 19 baktun, 0 katun, 0 tun, 0 uinal, 0 kin
Gregorian: Thursday, October 12, 4772 CE
Julian: Thursday, September 8, 4772 CE
Mayan Long Count: 19 baktun, 19 katun, 19 tun, 17 uinal, 19 kin
February 8th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Didn’t the world already end in 2000?
February 9th, 2008 at 12:38 am
I went to an astrologer and he said my migraine would peak and end around 2012 or I will end by then?
the solar max is probably around that time too (2011 to 2013)…
Man I cant imagine what 2013 would be like when nothing happens :p
or do they prophesiers have more dates?
if anything, probably people will connect this to the solar max…and will turn this to the most watched, commercialized end of the world ever, ever!
Anyone for limited edition end of the world souvenir?
February 9th, 2008 at 3:21 am
As far as predictions go, you can’t beat the True Bible Code website!
http://www.truebiblecode.com/
“We now predict a terrorist Dirty Bomb or Nuclear Bomb will hit the East Coast of the USA between NYC and Washington possibly at Annapolis or at the UN tower in Manhattan on Shebat26 which is Friday/Saturday February 8/9″
The fact that (a) they have now widened their scope (it used to be just Manhattan), and (b) they have been wrong 50 times so far (all listed) seems to have escaped them.
It seems like a joke website, but there’s a hell of a lot of material on there which few people will ever read, so it’s a lot of trouble to go to for no reason. And it doesn’t explicitly say on the site that it is meant to be humorous!
Assuming that it’s not a joke, they have been warning people of a nuclear attack on America almost every week for nearly two years, and none has materialised. And if a dirty bomb was to go off in America (probably doesn’t even have to be Manhattan), they would then claim that their Bible code predicted it!
February 9th, 2008 at 6:21 am
Probably the Mayans didn’t finish the calendar, they were so busy “predicting the end of the world” that they missed Hernan Cortés slaying their tribes. Or they did and they had to run away, and left the calendar incomplete.
Now, sarcasm apart, I don’t believe on this AT ALL. I’m a huge, HUGE conspiracy nut, and I believe everything people say to me.
TU24? Scared as hell until Phil saved me. Roswell? Probably. Area 51? Hmm…
But this is stupidity taken to a WHOLE new level. Like saying that 9-11 was an inside job. Maybe it was, but come on. Or the New World Order theories. It’s all garbage. Okay, I believed it at first, but when I read the FACTS, everything was much, much clear.
And so is this.
Honestly? I’m gonna take the dust off the champagne bottle I’ve been saving since 2 years, and celebrate December 21st, 2012 with no further issue.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:52 am
Thanks, BA. I’m a future archeologist and it drives me crazy when my friends ask about this, then don’t believe what I say. This sort of thing should get after-school specials, seeing as so many kids believe it.
February 9th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Alexander is right on. the History channel must be ran by a bunch of ufo, ghost, apocolypse believing woowoo loons. but the discovery network is doing the same
sometimes i wonder why i have satilite, so many channel but nothin on. i mostly watch history, discovery, and those learning channels. (but rarly TLC for what can i learn from watching degerates getting tatoos, or a disfunctional family building bikes) but mostly on weekend is none stop bible history or ufo searching or ghost hunting. Ide expect this crap from the sci-fi network but not History, Discovery, Travel channel.
at least Animal Planet doesnt do shows on bigfoot (Monster Quest, History Channel)
February 9th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
We’re all gonna die in only 4 years! Weep, wail! LOL.
February 9th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
In case anyone didn’t catch that, it’s called sarcasm.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Can we file the outpourings of the IPCC and their “we’re all doomed by flood/drought/wind/sea (talk about truebiblecode covering its bets - or is that blasphemous?) by the end of 2100″ amongst the other doomsday nonsense that we seem to need to be terrified by.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Thank You BA for the upcoming article. I recently had a co-worker make a comment about the end of the world in 2012, but as it was the first time I had heard about it, I could not make any counter argument beyound “that is nonsense.” I will soon be able to give him two articles to contemplate.
I do have to say this, that if the world does end on Dec.21 or 23 2012, then at least my brother got to celebrate his 44th. birthday just before doomsday. I would feel sorry for those whose birthday fell the day after doomsday, it would really suck to not only have the world end, but also miss out on birthday cake.
BA–If the Lord Witnesses are right, could you persuade them to move their doomsday back about 10 days so that my dad can celebrate his 70′th birthday–as stated above, I would hate for him to miss out on birhtday cake.
Thanks.
February 10th, 2008 at 10:20 am
@NASA Fan:
My birthday is in Christmas’ Eve. It seems that I’ll miss the cake
February 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Thanks for posting this it’s helped calm me. Any more debunking on the actually science claims on the end being 2012. Solar flare up having affects on the earth a possible asteroid hit in 2012? All things I’ve heard of.
February 11th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
As a further point against the doomsayers, and following their line of thought, every December 31st we should be in grave danger, being that date an end of a calendaric cycle, just like the Maya will be in 2012.
Just won’t happen.
Sad how we got people back to the end of the Middle Ages with this credulousness. Around the 1300’s in Mesoamerica, people cried doom and prayed for 5 days nonstop every end of calendar cycle (year in that case). We should know better by now.
Fortunately, we have BA and fellow skeptics trying to infuse some sense into that cohort of blockheads who refuse to think and analyse what they read. Go, BA, go!
February 28th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
the world ends in 1,000,000,000,000 years from now when the sun becomes a red giant end of story
March 2nd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
2012 YEAR , MAYAN = 5125
12 MONTH
21 DAY
THE END IS NEAR…
RUN AWAY FROM THIS PLANET NOW!!!
March 17th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Well Im not sure where everyone is getting their information from but there are still 8 million Mayan’s left. Not all which follow their heritage.
However, the Mayan calendar (TUN) is a very complex system of events that have and will happen. All which have been confirmed by our scientists.
If anything happens Oct 28th 2011 (true date) It will not be bad, it will actually be something good.
Im horrible at describing things so I’ll leave you with a link to a 3 hour Conversation. EXTREMELY IMFORMATIVE. If you actually want to take the time and truly understand what you’re all bashing than please watch the video. Everything he talks about is mind blowing yet completly believeable, I myself have experienced this first hand. I’m not a preacher, I simply wish everyone to stop, take a step back from their everyday lives and see whats going on around you, your Nation and the Planet as a whole. http://www.livevideo.com/video/Eight…north-ful.aspx
May 20th, 2008 at 5:16 am
If i can quibble slightly, “Completely Believable” is not neccesarily the same as “Accurate”. Also, I get a “bad request” error following that link.
And I think this quote sums up all the prophecy’s I’ve ever heard:
“Past results are not indicators of future performance”
May 20th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
I just noticed my drivers’ license expires in November 2012. Do you think they could move the apocalypse forward a month or so? I really hate going to the DMV, especially if the world’s just going to end in a month anyways.
May 21st, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Gary Ansorgeon:
But that wouldn’t be efficient — you’d still have to haul all that mass out of the gravity well first. It makes more sense to build with smaller bodies, like the asteroids. Besides, I think that even 22 million years from now, people will still be a bit sentimental about Mother Earth.
I could see humans (or their descendants) leaving Earth and letting it revert to wilderness, until such time as the Sun made it inhospitable to life.