I am fed up.
For those who haven’t been following this saga, some doomsayers have been claiming that an asteroid named 2007 TU24 poses a grave threat to Earth. These fearmongers are completely wrong, scaring lots of others, and are apparently unwilling to listen to reason. The videos still make outrageously bad claims and the websites still make utterly false statements. I decided to make my own video so that the truth can get out to as many people as possible.
To be clear: TU24 will miss us by hundreds of thousands of kilometers, and the electric connection claims are wrong. This asteroid will pass us by, and sail on into the night.
As for me, now that the book is submitted — and the irony of finishing a book about cosmic catastrophes while debunking false claims of such has not been lost on me — I’m off to The Amaz!ng Meeting 5.5 in Florida, where I will meet with other skeptics and critical thinkers, and figure out how in the world — or off it — we can stop this kind of nonsense.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:08 am
Keep up the great work Phil!
I don’t consider this to be a “fear-mongering” site. In fact, I think it’s fun to read about all the ways we can be stricken from the universe (and that wouldn’t really be a bad thing, but that’s just my opinion).
http://www.armageddononline.org/
January 25th, 2008 at 7:23 am
I think it’s funny (in a sad way) that people think that a smallish chunk of space rock passing past Earth at a distance farther than the moon can pose a danger. How many pass closer and don’t get this hype?
It’s bad enough that the media latches onto these idiots. One of our local stations even had a big story on the good old Martian bigfoot.
I’m going to post on our club’s blog (where we try to enlighten the public) and hope that it will do some good.
Keep up the work Phil. The more voices of reason are heard, the more (hopefully) we can make people see the truth.
(Oh yeah, and since you’re “basically” done with the book, make yourself a fancy “Bad Astronomer Studio” where you can present awesome videos!!)
January 25th, 2008 at 7:37 am
I just wrote about the Mayan 2012 crap earlier this week. What’s interesting is that often ‘conspiracy theory believers’ claim they are simply being ‘open minded’. I tend to think that wishing for the destruction of the human race whilst claiming that those in power are trying to hide “the truth” is close-minded, negative, distrustful and fearful. Not a nice place to be.
Most bizarre conspiracy theory aimed at me: I am a CIA agent working for Yoko Ono attempting to cover up the “truth” about John Lennon’s murder AND Paul McCartney’s murder. Yes, apparently Paul was killed in 1966.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:42 am
If anything, the BA has a vested interest in hyping up DEATH from the skies.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:43 am
@ Gia…
Well, Yoko is of course responsible for murdering the Beatles.
And we all know about Paul. That’s why you hear “Paul is Dead” when you play one of their songs backwards!! And why on the cover of Abbey Road album he is barefoot!!
Ah, conspiracy theorists!! Good for a laugh, as we take them down.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Maybe I shouldn’t even joke about this, but I think a cool conspiracy theory would be that the moon (or the earth) has been building up a huge net electric charge and that at some point there will be a huge discharge of static electricity from the moon to earth, with devastating results.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:52 am
I am pretty pessimistic about putting an end to the mess. I wrote about the UFO over nearby Stephenville, TX, last week. The posting generated a large amount of very negative response, mostly from people who claimed to be “open minded” by refusing to accept any other possible explanation than that the UFO was an alien spacecraft, rather than being something unidentified. A local news outlet ran a web poll seeking reader’s opinions on the object. The majority of folk who responded did not accept the official explanations of what people may have seen. Most preferred to believe that it was a spaceship and a government cover up.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:53 am
I’ve missed your videos Q&A that you had to put on hold. It’s a pleasure to hear and see you talk again.
I think that the doomsayers are getting the idea that TU24 will hurt the earth because if you move a wire through a magnetic field you generate an electrical current. Of course TU24 isn’t part of an electrical circuit and there’s no place for the current to flow in the asteroid, so there’s not going to be any electrical disturbance that the imaginative folks who fear TU24 think will happen. (Vacuum is a wonderful insulator, isn’t it?)
January 25th, 2008 at 7:54 am
What about brimstone? Why didn’t you bring up the affects of brimstone as it relates to the asteroid?
What are you trying to hide!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!
Just in case, I’m gonna wear my anti-brimstone galoshes the rest of the year. And they WON’T be on my FEET!
January 25th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I think there’s really only one conspiracy theory, which is that the person holding the theory is smarter, cooler, more deserving of wealth and promotion and status than the rest of us, and that the only explanation for their lack of these things is a conspiracy. The rest is just detail.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:01 am
You are very informative, I’ve heard you on Coast:) pretty strange how many people are trying to hype every little thing that could blow up into catastrophy. Thanks for gettting the truth out there>
JJ from Montana
January 25th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Sweet, BA! Great video.
Have you submitted this video as a video response to some of the big insane ones?
January 25th, 2008 at 8:09 am
The video appears to have ben filmed at sunset. If you fast forward it, you can see the light ambience change from yellow to deep blue. It makes for an interesting effect. I’m sure it wouldn’t have worked if BA had tried to do it intentionally.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Ioresult said:
“The video appears to have ben filmed at sunset. If you fast forward it, you can see the light ambience change from yellow to deep blue. It makes for an interesting effect. I’m sure it wouldn’t have worked if BA had tried to do it intentionally.”
Aha, photographic inconsistencies! It is obviously all a hoax. The BA never went anywhere outside the cupboard in which NASA keep him!!!!!
Or, maybe not
January 25th, 2008 at 8:28 am
And right after his afternoon golf session, if his trousers is anything to go by
January 25th, 2008 at 8:38 am
See you in Fort Lauderdale.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Some kook was on the radio last night claiming “scientists” were not sure what the asteroids trajectory really was??????
Have fun in Florida.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:47 am
There will never be a dearth of idiots who think the world is about to end. People have proven it time and time and time again. The Millerites thought Jesus was going to come back on October 22, 1844. When it didn’t happen they picked a new date. At least there isn’t a cult that thinks TU24 is an alien spaceship and that they must commit suicide to catch a ride.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:01 am
We need more videos like this on Youtube. It’s concise, informative, and well spoken. The only possible complaint I could have is the lighting. I know someone else brought it up in one of the posts about Brian Greene, but I have to echo the sentiment that Phil would be awesome on his own TV show.
I wonder…when January 29th comes and goes without incident, how many doomsayers are going to email Phil or post video retractions saying, “Sorry, I was wrong!”
January 25th, 2008 at 9:03 am
I’m kind of disappointed by this Discovery Channel story - Asteroid to Make Near-Earth Pass
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/01/25/earth-asteroid-miss.html
Which begins with:
“An asteroid at least 500 feet long will make a rare close pass by Earth next week, but there is no chance of an impact, scientists reported Thursday. ”
a rare close pass? It only seems rare, because we don’t know about most of the close passes! Aren’t there hundreds of Earth orbit-crossing asteriods and stuff that we aren’t even tracking?
I would think Discovery News would know better.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Of course scientists aren’t “sure” what the real trajectory is! Claiming certain knowledge is almost always a charlatan’s trick. Scientists quote results with errors attached, from which the probability that something is outside the error box can be calculated. From which we can see that a minor correction in the trajectory like the one Phil posted about yesterday is not a cause to doubt the original calculation and that the asteroid is going to miss the earth.
Bottom line: scientists are confident that the asteroid’s trajectory falls within a certain cone, they are not ’sure’ that it will follow a certain well-defined trajectory. This does not mean that they have no idea where it is going, merely that they are not charlatans and are honest about the accuracy of their knowledge (accurate enough to know it’s going to miss the Earth, in this case).
January 25th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Thanks Phil for providing a great youtube video to link to conspiracy theorists. You should do more video/podcast work, you get so worked and excited about science. It’s like a rock concert of facts.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Hey, Good work Phil! Keep those doomsayers at bay.
Can I make an observation?
You do the passive-political hand gesture a lot, where instead of pointing you just tuck your thumb behind your clenched fingers. Are you running for president? (hint hint) I miss a good old fashioned point with the index finger.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Yea well what about MN4 on April 13, 2029, huh? Ya, its not going to hit us either, even though it well pass us at a little over 18,000 miles. Will its orbit change eough to hit us at its next close approach nine years later?
If one is going to be a doom sayer at least pick something that has some possiblity of happening. That’s my reasoning.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Sorry, everyone, I forgot the world ends in 2012, so I guess we will never know about 2029.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Thanks for all your efforts, Phil. It’s folks like you who make being a skeptic as rewarding and fun as it is- I love nothing more than hearing someone mention the ‘death from the skies’ and within a minute being able to refute their careless claims with an informative, collected, and educational offering from someone like yourself. So again, thank you.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:52 am
you know, phil is always “debunking” everything , which is a good thing I suppose (unless phil’s wrong of course)…
phil doesn’t believe in an “electric universe”, which is fine, but man would it be great of tu24 did cause widespread electronic interference… all you e-blowhards would have to go out into the world instead of constantly being glued to your keyboards…
as for phil being a debunker… I had an idea last night….on a completely different note… we get phil plait, PZ myers, Randi, and anyone else who doesn’t believe in the “supernatural”… and we all go up to Estes Park Colorado and stay at the Stanley hotel for 7 full days… if Phil is still “skeptical” of the supernatural after 7 days in the stanley, then he might have a pot to piss in, and a leg to stand on when it comes to making anti-supernatural claims.
I’d pay a million dollars to see Randi, PZ and Plait running out with their evolved tails between their legs…
January 25th, 2008 at 9:56 am
This from a guy who wrote AN ENTIRE BOOK called Death from the Skies, a book “…about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth”
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
Ironic
January 25th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Very nice and informative video, just like what we always get from you.
.
Astronomy has an advantage compared with nuclear physics (i.e.)… there is no way to make weapons “out of” it
Anyway: This video reminded me of a great time almost one year ago, when we all had the pleasure to watch you in a great video once a week. Is there a tiny chance that there will be some more episodes of Q&BA in the future?? (Maybe a bigger chance than an impact of 2007UT24?)
January 25th, 2008 at 10:08 am
I think it’s funny (in a sad way) that people think that a smallish chunk of space rock passing past Earth at a distance farther than the moon can pose a danger. How many pass closer and don’t get this hype?
Sssh, the people who believe in this crap will now be afraid of the moon. Not that they don’t probably already think that a full moon causes people to act crazy.
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
We have noticed that you have been the cause of most of it. Even more ironic that you posted this?
January 25th, 2008 at 10:11 am
I think its sooooo funny that the TU24.org guy is acting so cocky right now… hes going to look very very stupid come 30th if he keeps it up.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Good science on your part, yes, indeed. But I know of no one running around like headless chickens fearful of dying from an asteriod. Certainly no similar reports on the news about such behavior. Most people I know are so oblivious to any interest in astronomy that I think your arguments fall on deaf ears. Or, rather, you’re just preaching to the choir. Take a rest.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Great video, I don’t think the case against all the ridiculous fearmongering could have been put more clearly or convincingly.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Stephanie, maybe they mean it’s a rare close pass for that asteroid. Though I don’t know if even that’s true. Maybe they’re just not very good at proofreading.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Still waiting for the “Bad Astronomer” to debunk the lastest JPL contradiction:
-“This will be the closest approach by a known asteroid of this size or larger until 2027” - Don Yeomans, JPL
-“…an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so.” - Don Yeomans, JPL
I won’t hold my breath. That would be professional suicide.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I especially liked the shout-out to Hitchhiker’s with the big, “DON’T PANIC”, but darn it man! Where was your towel?
Great video, Phil! I know they’re time-consuming to do, but maybe now that the book is safely on its way, you could throw some more astronomical common sense up on YouTube. It could sure use it.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:44 am
by the way, nice video. As promised, I will post it to my website.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Still waiting for the “Bad Astronomer” to debunk the lastest JPL contradiction:
-“This will be the closest approach by a known asteroid of this size or larger until 2027” - Don Yeomans, JPL
-“…an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so.” - Don Yeomans, JPL
Statistics, you’re doing it wrong.
Known asteroid until 2027 vs average based on how often asteroids this size pass by are very different things. Duh. It’s like hundred year floods. They don’t happen every hundred years but floods that high happen on average every hundred years. To reiterate, duh.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:48 am
TU,,,: The key words in that post are “by a KNOWN asteroid”. Which is simply saying that other asteroids(currently UNKNOWN) probably pass as close or closer every five years,,,or so,,,
So, where’s the “contradiction?
GAry 7
January 25th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Mena, my post yesterday (on 24 Jan 2008 at 11:37 am):
Yes, I know he said ‘on average’. But why give misleading information?
Hostility instead of thoughtility?
January 25th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Hey “TU Dude”…
I don’t see any contradictions by Dr. Yeomans. You are only (as usual) taking parts of his words….
This is directly from the page…
“Given the estimated number of near-Earth asteroids of this size (about 7,000 discovered and undiscovered objects), an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so. The average interval between actual Earth impacts for an object of this size would be about 37,000 years. For the January 29th encounter, near Earth asteroid 2007 TU24 has no chance of hitting, or affecting, Earth.
2007 TU24 will be the closest currently known approach by a potentially hazardous asteroid of this size or larger until 2027.”
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news157.html
That is what are called facts sir. Try to use them, at some point. Then perhaps people won’t think you are a Hoagland-type crackpot.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:54 am
“# TU24dotORGon 25 Jan 2008 at 9:56 am
This from a guy who wrote AN ENTIRE BOOK called Death from the Skies, a book “…about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth”
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
Ironic”
Ironic indeed…Or is it?
http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2007/04/08/big-announcement-part-1-my-next-book/
A quick quote from the post:
“I’m really tired of doomsday criers scaring people and scamming their money, so this should act as something of a mitigation. I want to be accurate, and I want to make sure that people understand that while the effects of a Galactic gamma-ray burst would good and truly suck (…) the odds are vanishingly small. How many people do you know who have been killed by a GRB?”
You might want to read this. He’s not claiming we’re all gonna die like you are. What a paranoid lad you are. Tell me, do you even have a LIFE?
January 25th, 2008 at 11:01 am
For starters, no one and I mean NOONE knows what is going to happen in 2012!!! It really doesn’t matter what a scientist says about it! If God says our number is up come December 2012, then that is that! He doesn’t go by “astronomical data”, or what astronomers think they know, no offense! To say that absolutely nothing will happen on this date is just as arrogant as saying the end will come on this date! I do not believe the world will end on that date, but there could be a major disaster to the world then! They say that the galactic alignment happens once every 26,000 years. How do we know what happened the last time this took place when we weren’t even around? The truth is nobody knows what is going to happen on that date! You know what, this world needs a good dealing with! I don’t mean us being wiped off the map, because I don’t believe that will ever happen! Keep believing that the government cares about you, and that they have your best interests at heart! THEY DON”T! They only care about themselves! Remember the weapons of mass destruction that DON’T EXIST!” They lie to achieve their goals! Anyways, that is what I believe. I am open to other’s beliefs, and please hear me, I don’t want to attack anyone here. Everybody is unique with their own beliefs. The government is not your friend, at least in my opinion. Have a wonderful day and may God bless you!
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Surely we don’t have a sexist female in the house? It’s not surprising that quite a few of the users here have assumed that I am male, but I wouldn’t expect that from a female.
Shame.. anyway…
“He’s not claiming we’re all gonna die like you are.”
I wouldn’t trust you with any facts because that certainly isn’t one. Can you back that statement up with anything?
January 25th, 2008 at 11:03 am
@ TU24dotORG
I’m not Phil and I don’t play him on TV (or YouTube) for that matter)
I’m assuming the two quotes you’re using came from here- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news157.html If that’s correct, you kind of lost part of the first quote: “2007 TU24 will be the closest currently known approach by a potentially hazardous asteroid of this size or larger until 2027.” (bolding added) It’s that “potentially hazardous” part that makes the difference and takes away any contradiction. To put it another way, these two sentences don’t contradict one another:
“Every 5 years, an elephant runs through my neighborhood.”
“The next elephant running at my house isn’t expected until around 2027.”
January 25th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Surely we don’t have a sexist female in the house? It’s not surprising that quite a few of the users here have assumed that I am male, but I wouldn’t expect that from a female.
Shame.. anyway..
“He’s not claiming we’re all gonna die like you are.”
I wouldn’t trust you with any facts because that certainly isn’t one. Can you back that statement up with anything?
January 25th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I don’t CARE what sex you are. You are a qwack, to stay polite. Sex has nothing to do with it, and you better shove that in your head. Your gender is never a shield and you CANNOT use that as a defense or as an attack. EVER.
Quite frankly, I think the biggest proof that you are an alarmist is that you made a website full of false misinterpreted claims that lots of folks will think is real.
SUCH AS
“Although the chances of a direct impact are nearly non-existent, there is a much greater chance that there will be a degree of electromagnetic interference as TU24 traverses Earth’s magnetosphere in the manner of Tunguska 100 years ago. ”
What a load of bull.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I’m sure that the fallacy in Brandon’s post has a name, but I don’t know what it is.
Maybe I will marry Catherine Zeta Jones on Dec 14th 2012, or else I won’t get married to her on that date. That doesn’t mean that both events are equally likely, or that it’s arrogant for me to assume that I won’t get married to her.
(Apologies to Michael Douglas)
January 25th, 2008 at 11:18 am
TU24, stop being a dink. You’re intentionally trying to ‘bait’ people into a fight, over whatever you can possibly pull from their responses, from one second to the next. This is called ‘trolling for flames’. It’s a useless waste of time and effort on our part to ‘rise to the challenge’ you offer.
You’re nothing more than a glorified board troll with a website. Stop being a dink- you’re making yourself look worse with each and every response. If you come here with genuine scientific questions or information, then stick to it. Stop trying to stir the pot - it’s useless background noise in an important topic.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:19 am
“operation Babyfood”
Dang, party people I already started handing out stoogies and told
all Cobra vipers the precise impact time and location. Rain on my
parade why dontcha. Heh, no piggies gonna ruin my plans anyway.
I’ve been reading the usa’s senario paper’s and it appears all
scenarios with a asteroid impact have a preemptive nuclear strike.
Jesus man, we’ll sure will know pretty soon if you confident 00dumdums are correct in your anylasis or lied to expendable commodities. blue 42 , blue 42 …hut,hut , hike!
compliments of Von Vanderberg
January 25th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Great video Phil 2.0, do this more often!
Enjoy TAM.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Christian,
Fallacy, ha, that’s a good one! LOL!!! No this is no fallacy. There is a God and I know that to be true because of what He has done in my life! He loves you very much, and wants the best for you! If you want to call me a religious idiot or a kook, what are some others; geez there are so many of them in the atheists’s dictionary to describe anyone that believes in God. Anyway I don’t care! He has given me an extraordinary wife and a beautiful, amazine child, and that comes from God, not me! I don’t deserve those things! He gives them to me because He loves me! One popular thing that is thrown at those who believe in these theories and believe we don’t live forever, and that we could be in trouble one day is the belief that we want it to happen, and that we hate life and hate the world. That couldn’t be further from the truth!!! I happen to like my life and LOVE the people in it!!! I have something to live for! It is just this stuff is exciting and makes me feel alive! I would in no way wish to see the actual day when we would all die! I couldn’t be strong for my family like that! I think I would have a heart attack even though my soul is ready! It would be pretty scary! LOL!
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Good job BA! Say, were those the same pants you wore in your Christmas picture!?
Anyway, based on past occurrences of NEO’s passing by, I think we can assume that history teaches us that there are no ill effects of these misses. Tunguska, which TU brings up, was different. It hit us, at least our atmosphere.
TU, I have a question and a challenge: Are you willing to post an apology on your site, via YouTube, when nothing happens by January 30? Will you post an apology on this blog? By January 30 you will have had your moment in the limelight, your web hits will undoubtedly dry up, and you will in all likelihood shut it down. Until the next time.
Brandon, I’m not sure I get the point of your post here, but did you not catch Phil’s recent appearance on Coast to Coast? He did a great job of explaining the whole 2012 mania. You are right about one thing. No one knows what will happen in 2012. No one knows what will happen tomorrow, or in one hour. If I walk across the street, I could be hit by a car. I could have a heart attack. For me the world will have ended.
How the government ties into all this escapes me? Sounds like you are a “conspiracy junkie.” Keep reading and hopefully you can be cured.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:36 am
In reading that, I should have written ‘You’re acting like nothing more than a glorified board troll’.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Michael,
No, I think I will keep my beliefs in God, and what the bible says about a conspiracy in the end times. I am however welcome to debate, I love to debate! It is fun! Honestly, tell me something, why do you think we are so invincible that something couldn’t do us in at any time? I am just curious. How is it so far fetched in your views?
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:39 am
TU44: WHAT “misleading” Information?
GAry 7
January 25th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Don’t get me wrong, I believe the hype about the 2007 TU-24 asteroid is a bunch of hooey! Something that small wouldn’t even tickle us, let alone hurt us!
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:40 am
I never really heard of the electric universe until I started posting in the forums, now it gets me so upset that there a people pushing that crud.
Ok Michelle quick question are you originally from Quebec or another province? (I once knew a girl named Michelle who lives in Quebec now, yes I know there are a lot of michelles in Quebec.)
January 25th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Davidlpf: I’m from Quebec, yes, but as you said, Quebec is big and wide and full of michelles.
Sespetoxri: You absolutely nailed it. She’s just a troll.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Michelle nothing ventured,nothing gained. but glad to see another canuck around.
Trolls, trolls you say on the BAs website how silly, there have been no trolls around here, well ever.
January 25th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Actually Brandon, I’m not so naive to believe that we couldn’t be wiped out. I think there are many things that could end it all: Nuclear War, Pandemic, various natural disasters, and yes, I am almost certain that one day a rock from space will have our number. It has happened in the past, and will most assuredly happen in the future. Whether or not one can attribute this to God is another question. (I know where you are coming from as I was an Evangelical Christian for 24 years and even did a stint pastoring for awhile.) In a word, it would be foolish to think we are invincible. Mass extinctions have happened in ages past. Many believe that is was an asteroid impact that wiped the dinosaurs out 65 million years ago.
BTW, if 2007 TU24, were to hit, it would do more than tickle those that happen to be directly underneath it!
January 25th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Oui, Oui @ Michelle! (That’s about the only French I know
) Hello from Canada’s Best Coast!
January 25th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Uh, Brandon, I don’t think anyone mentioned God or atheism, and I think we’d all rather not go into that, as it would be seriously off-topic. We’re talking about this specific asteroid and how it isn’t going to kill us, not atheism, religious apocalypse scenarios, or animal husbandry
Oh, and ease up on those exclamation marks, will ya? I feel like you’re about to go for my throat.
January 25th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
I blame the opening sequence of “Thundarr: The Barbarian.”
January 25th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
@ Davidlpf
Yeah, neither had I. Then I looked it up, and was dumbfounded. I was expecting a theory comparable to Modified Newtonian Dynamics or Scalar-Tensor-Vector Gravity, but the Electrical Universe theory is just a bunch of gibberish pulled out of someone’s…posterior.
Instead of using theory and mathematics, they try and justify it with logical fallacies. My favorite is “Most revolutions in science have come from people who taught themselves outside the academic system and were not constrained by the fallacies and fashions of the day.” Umm…that statement, assuming that it’s true, doesn’t mean that people who taught themselves outside the academic system are going to be scientific revolutionaries. Very, very few of them will. Most are kooks that promote crap like perpetual motion and electrical universes because they don’t understand what they’re talking about (or speaking out against).
January 25th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I think the best example of pure nonsense “I learn on my own” guy I dealt with is Michael Mozina. That guy claims the Sun has a solid surface.
When I asked him what his diplomas were, I received just a volley of nonsense and dodges with him calling it irrelevant and such. He had, of course, no teachings in the field and yet he claimed he was able to analyze SOHO images better than these silly scientists!
A bit of a scary guy that goes as far as emailing little me because I have said on my silly video game comic website that there’s nonsense everywhere (all while linking to his website with these words).
January 25th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
In other news, Dr Lavelle of the Java Observatory is reporting a huge outbreak of incandescent gas upon the surface of Mars. Spectral analysis indicates a mass of flaming gas, chiefly hydrogen, moving with an enormous velocity towards us.
Unconfirmed reports of a large meteorite falling somewhere near Horsell and Woking are not thought to be connected.
January 25th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
You never know the potential treat..
People Search
http://www.vcao.net/people-search
January 25th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
@TU,
You were asked a polite question which wasn’t full of filth (your complaint about posters on your forum) and yet you didn’t respond. Will you or will you not put a full apology on your website on the 30th January when nothing happens?
January 25th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Mark, I’d be surprised if she posts an apology. It’s the same will all of her type… she’ll figure out something to never apologize. She’ll make up some effect.
Otherwise, we could be witnessing a first.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Micheal Mozina did post in the bulletin board but that was before my time there, I had a discussion with a guy ho used the alias upriver but same theory and claimed it was his own. Also over at the JREF the is a character called BeaChooser pushing the electric universe there as well.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Michelle,
That’s what I’m assuming will happen. I just thought it useful to remind TU that she was asked a polite question and yet she wouldn’t respond. I guess she just can’t put her money where her mouth is.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Hey Brandon,
You realize that 2012 date doesn’t from any Christian sources, but rather from a reading of the Mayan calendar, don’t you? Oh, and those Mayans, not big believers in Yahve, it turns out. Oh, and they didn’t make any sort of predictions that the world would end on that date, just that the “next age” would occur. No mention of catastrophes or anything like that, but they do talk about parties.
Hmm… getting an idea for a 12/21/12 kegger….
January 25th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Brandon Hooks writes:
[[They say that the galactic alignment happens once every 26,000 years. ]]
Who is “they?” And for that matter, what is “the galactic alignment?”
January 25th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
(2007 TU24) Earth MOID = .00125025 AU according to NASA http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1 I think thats 116218.1 Miles. or a little less than half the distance to the moon.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Michelle writes:
[[I think the best example of pure nonsense “I learn on my own” guy I dealt with is Michael Mozina. That guy claims the Sun has a solid surface. ]]
I think there were actually scientists who thought it could be solid as late as 1930 or so, though Homer Lane’s solar model came out in 1869 and I’m pretty sure he described it as a gas. I know Olaf Stapledon, a guy who tried to keep up with the science although he was not a scientist, was writing as if stars were solid as late as 1937 (at the end of Starmaker, when all the stars are burnt out, the last surviving intelligences burrow into the sun, having bioengineered themselves as a sort of flat caterpillar that could survive under that kind of gravity). If your Mr. Mozina learned his astronomy from some 1926 textbook, that could explain his misconception.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
your wife and child are gifts from god? does that imply they are yours by divine right? Does your wife regard herself as a gift to you from god?
Strange way of looking at the world and other people.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
I predict that TU and like minded people will point to events on or about the 29th or 30th and attempt to draw a connection between the observed events and the passing of the 2007 TU24 asteroid. They will not factor in the frequency of the events, (like that they happen with regularity) but will imply that the asteroid caused them.
To be a little more specific in my prediction, earthquakes happen every day all over the world. I predict TU or others will hear of news of one of these earthquakes and say something like, “See?! An earthquake happened just as the asteroid arrived.”
Failing to compare that day’s earthquakes with other days’ can make people think that the asteroid did it. Of course, one can substitute any phenomenon for the earthquakes in this example.
When you don’t compare what you are observing to the base rate of how frequently it happens, you leave yourself vulnerable to the illusion that one thing is causing another thing.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Luke,
My apologies my friend! When I was putting the exclamation marks in, it wasn’t because I was angry by any means! For some reason I am obsessed with the exclamation mark! LOL! Well there I go again with it. Somebody help me! LOL! Just kidding.
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Michael,
When I said that it wouldn’t even tickle us I was referring to it making its close pass by the earth. There is the talk that it will affect the earth even “without a collision.” That was what I was referring to. No, if it did hit the earth I am very sure it would completely wipe out a city or greater. Sorry about that!
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Barton, I think he may be referring to the Earth crossing the Galactic Plane, which happens every 26,000 years, although I think BA made a post about this recently. I’ll see if I can find it.
No problem, Brandon. I think if it were on a collision course with my city, and I couldn’t get out, I’d fulfill a dream. Running around naked in the streets. (Well at least that’s a recurring dream of mine, walking in my former High School, sans clothes….. It’s a nightmare because no one notices!
)
January 25th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Mena, my post yesterday (on 24 Jan 2008 at 11:37 am):
Yes, I know he said ‘on average’. But why give misleading information?
What’s misleading about saying “on average”? I’m suspecting that the term means something different to you than it does to everyone else. Being “on average” is like getting across the town that you live in, let’s say 10 miles, in a half hour means that you are going twenty miles an hour on average. You probably went faster at some points and there were probably a few stop lights. To simplify, you didn’t go 20 mph for the entire journey. You seem to think that “on average” means that you have to have gone 20 mph (the whole thing about these objects passing by in 2027) the whole time or you didn’t go across town at all.
Hostility instead of thoughtility?
Would that make you happy? Is that why you keep posting stuff? Sorry but no. In reality though it’s more of a case of incredulity at the futility of discussing anything with you. It’s almost like you just aren’t paying attention. Please address why you think that Phil is giving misleading information because of the “on average” statement or anything else that you have been asked. If that happens, we’ll talk some more. If not, toodles. I have no reason to be hostile about you or your comments because I don’t know you, I don’t find you very intelligent from your comments, and I really don’t care about your opinions. You aren’t the center of our world. Deal.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Mark & Michelle, I think what will happen on the 30th is TU will point to anything at all as evidence of an “Electrical Connection”, whether that be an earthquake, intense storm, volcanic eruption, forest fire, heat wave, cold snap or mass constipation. Oh, let’s not forget about UFO sightings! However, there was a recent incident with a religious website that predicted the rapture by Dec. 31. When we all woke up on Jan.1, this person did have the decency to post an apology and shut down her website.
BTW, before anyone starts, that was not an attack against Christians. I was merely pointing out something similar that had a “happy” outcome. The person apologized. That’s all I’m asking TU to do. I’ll even go so far as to say, “TU, would you please be so kind to post an apology on Jan. 30, if nothing happens?” I’m such a nice guy!
January 25th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I see nothing contradictory about these two statements:
> Mars makes its closest approach to Earth every 3 years.
> This is the closest Mars will get the Earth in 30,000 years.
Nor do I see anything contradictory about the two JPL statements quoted by TU24. Do they define what “pass this close to Earth” means? My guess is that it means a range of “closeness”, as opposed to “530,000km”. Perhaps by “this close”, they mean “750,000km or closer”, or “within twice the distance to the Moon”?
Plus, as others have pointed out, you have the “known” vs “unknown” aspect.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Michael,
LOL!!! I guess that is some way to spend the last bit of your life! No, but hypothetically speaking, if there were REALLY something coming that was going to wipe us out, I don’t really know how I would spend it. I would want to be right next to my wife and son of course. I know the world would just freak out, and I would probably just try and board up the house so looters couldn’t come in and do harm to us, even thought the end was coming. I don’t really know I guess.
Sincerely, Brandon.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Barton, I can’t find a post that BA made dealing with this whole 26,000 year cycle. I’m almost positive he dealt with it. Maybe it was in the recent C2C interview with George Noory. Maybe if BA is listening he can enlighten us? If I ask nicely? Please?
January 25th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
This reminds me of the whole “Jupiter Effect” thing back in the ’80s. If you missed, all the planets were going to be in a straight line at some point in 1984. The combined gravitational pull was supposed to unleash all kinds of earthquakes and tsunamis and whatever the hell else, and lead to the destruction of the Earth. Some moron even wrote a book about it.
Well, the last time I checked, the world didn’t end in 1984.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Lugosi, yes, but that’s when I started going bald, which I attribute to the Jupiter Effect. Truly devastating on a personal level.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Well, the last time I checked, the world didn’t end in 1984.
I remember calling someone on that. It was an acquaintance, and he was always up on the latest conspiracy. So when the world didn’t end, I asked him to explain, and the explanation was so ludicrous that it burned itself into my brain:
“The world did end as a result of the Jupiter effect, but quantum effects shifted us to an alternate universe and we are now on a new world.”
Ohhhh Kayyyy.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Has anyone else noticed that when you click on any of the FAQ links on TU24.org, they all lead to a page which says “Coming Soon!”
He might want to get a move on if he wants to get those up before civilization comes to an end.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Great video Phil. Thank you!
January 25th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Great job Phil! I was hoping you would post a video, very well done.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Stichen (sp) wrote a book about the great alignment. Didn’t he? Seem like I remember that name connected with flim-flammery.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Lew, Zecharia Sitchin (sp?) is a leading proponent of the Planet X/Niburu/Anunaki/Sumerian stuff (for lack of a better term). He is probably even more unhinged than Hoagland, if that’s possible. If you Google any one of those terms I mentioned, his name is sure to pop up.
January 25th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Christian X Burnhamon
I’m sure that the fallacy in Brandon’s post has a name, but I don’t know what it is.
Several,actually:
Brandon Hookson
For starters, no one and I mean NOONE knows what is going to happen in 2012!!! It really doesn’t matter what a scientist says about it!
Appeal to Ignorance
If God says our number is up come December 2012, then that is that! He doesn’t go by “astronomical data”, or what astronomers think they know, no offense!
Appeal to Authority (God)
The truth is nobody knows what is going to happen on that date!
See Appeal to Ignorance
Remember the weapons of mass destruction that DON’T EXIST!” They lie to achieve their goals!
Faulty Analogy
For details on the particular fallacies (and my thanks to the authors who allowed me to post the page) check this page:
Dittobusters Fallacy Page
J/P=?
January 25th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
While I’m sure there’s nothing to fear from this asteroid, I’m moving my porn collection to the Y2k shelter I built nine years ago.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Phil,
Make sure to leave your final placard with the website on your video recording for at least 5 seconds so people can see your website address. YouTube has the tendency to lop off a second or three from the end of each video.
At least this event hysteria will be over in a week or so.
Either way…
January 25th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Phil, is it possible you’re overreacting to this? The only place I’ve seen a mention of this killer asteroid is on your site. I saw the ridiculous video, but again that was because it was linked to from here. Now I’m perfectly willing to admit that I’m incredibly discerning in my choice of blogs, but I haven’t heard a word about this from my less sophisticated family and friends. Aren’t you blowing this out of proportion?
January 25th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
My previous post was supposed to contain a humorous “end sarcasm” tag after the part about my family and friends. I guess I screwed it up. Oh, the irony!
January 25th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
My previous post was supposed to contain a humorous “end satire” tag at the end of the “family and friends” line. I guess I screwed it up. Oh, the irony!
January 25th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Actually, Taz, the video was pretty popular on Youtube a few days ago, and it was being passed around on a ton of the popular forums out there. This TU24 guy and his crew have got quite a “network” of kooks and crazies. Notice all the name calling on this guy’s page.. he just is interested in getting people riled up.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
I’m worried about the possibility that the Martian Bigfoot guy is secretly controlling 2007 TU24 and will divert it, causing it to crash into the Earth.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
this video does clear a lot up for anyone who was seriously doubtful. i feel better knowing more than just what NASA provided on their website.
anyone else notice that the “prophetic” youtube video thats scaring the bejezus out of everyone has several errors in spelling within it? it makes me doubt even more that the video’s creators were incapable of even spelling the simplest of words. “no so fast” “potentiall hazardous asteroid” are the two examples i found. i know simple errors, but anything past two really concerns me. i am thankful for this site and all it has provided for information.
January 25th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Jarrod Henry, did you notice that although TU24dotOG posted Phil’s video it was done with the tag “And here’s the Bald Astronomer’s rebuttal”? Yet another person who seems to think that he/she is an expert on any given subject just because he/she has an internet connection. How gifted… (NSFW if your boss has a thing about language in cartoons.)
I’m still chuckling over Plasma is the fourth state of matter, and one that we know little about. 99.999% of the universe consists of this plasma.
January 25th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Why all the fuss about whats posted on you tube anyway? Its about as accurate as the New York Times. Apart from the sarcasm I agree with some of the previous post: its a matter of semantics, the key word being “known”. Of course this one wont hit us, but just last year I believe a lesser sized object missed even closer, and in fact wasnt observed until its departure. Perhaps a little like the old addage “you never hear the bullet that hits you”. And while Im on old sayings heres one thats germane. Its called the little bullet theory, when aircraft returned undamaged from battle the pilots would cling to the theory..”big sky-little bullet”. Big space-little planet perhaps?
January 25th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
You don’t fool us — yer just a shill for the intergallactic Zorg conspiracy. Good job keeping the tentacles hidden, though.
January 25th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Great video, Phil. This reminds me, didn’t you say you were bringing back Q&BA this year? I really miss those.
January 25th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Hey Phil, thanks for the video. I am currently taking Maladaptive Behavior and Psychology in college and this week we are going over rationality and irrationality of fears (in short, how to define phobias).
Most of the class is keeping pretty strict to the class lectures and text, but I wanted to take it to a new level so here was one of my responses:
“I would actually like to take things to a whole other level here. How do we deal with people that accept irrational fear mongering that seem rational to common people?
For example, on January 29 an asteroid (2007 TU24 for you astronomy nerds) will be passing a very safe distance past Earth, yet there are people out there that claim that the asteroid is going to cause a great deal of floods, earthquakes, and multiple square miles of fires. These people use pseudoscience, a technique that appears scientific, but in all reality it is not scientific. (See http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2008/01/25/asteroid-2007-tu24-no-danger-to-earth/ for a clearer understanding of this).
I am incredibly annoyed by people that go out of their way to misinterpret science to promote fear into the masses. This may end up being my life’s work, battling nonsense. It is a sad, thankless job, but it needs to be done.”
Thanks, as always, for being a rational outlet.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:15 am
“Squishy, rubber, Earth ball of science…”
Wow Phil, if you ever decided to go the Bill Nye route, you would totally rock it.
“Coming up next on PBS: Bad Astronomy.”
I think it could work.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Taz — I was a little surprised when I read your post that this site is the only place you’ve seen a mention about this asteroid, as I’ve seen countless references, including in the ordinary press (i.e., neither conspiracy theorists etc. nor debunkers — though I’ve seen plenty in those contexts as well).
I live in Bangkok, and a number of folks here, both Westerners and locals who know I’m interested in a topic of this nature, have asked me what light I could shed. None of them offered an opinion one way or the other, not because they felt it unimportant — they wouldn’t have asked, if that had been their perspective — but because they recognized they simply know relatively less than I do. (Not that I’m any sort of pro, just a guy with a life-long interest in astronomy.) Particularly interesting to me were questions from Thai employees who work in restaurants and bars I visit, as such people here are usually (in ordinary places, not fancy hotels) what we would be tempted to call “country bumpkins” (unfairly, BTW), and even more because educational levels here are quite low. For instance, some years ago a former Thai girlfriend (I’m American) were outside and happened to look east, where the Moon was just rising, a few minutes before the Sun went down. I pointed out the Moon to her, simply because the sky was unusually clear and it was a lovely sight. She was dumbfounded — she had never seen the Moon before the Sun set, and thought I was pulling some sort of trick on her. It wasn’t until she called her Father and asked him about it, with him (a barely-educated rice farmer) rather derisively telling her of course there are times one can see the Moon while the Sun’s up. But, then, farmers have to be darned well attuned to nature, without regard to formal education.
Though I’ve visited this site before, this is my first posting. I enjoyed reading all these comments, though it would be nice if some people were a bit less provocative and a bit more civil.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:51 am
I like your T-shirt, Phil.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:59 am
Is it harmless? Or is it
(duh-duh-daaaaa)
Mostly Harmless?
January 26th, 2008 at 1:01 am
Probably the nerdiest thing I’ve ever commited to the tubes.
(wipes away a tear)
January 26th, 2008 at 1:05 am
Amusingly, TU24’s forum appears to have quite a few f-words in the posts but because these are from ‘believers’ they obviously don’t qualify as filth. Smells a little like double standards to me. Still no word on whether an apology will be forthcoming from TU24 if, or should that be when, nothing happens?
Phil, great video. You should do them more often (again)
January 26th, 2008 at 1:12 am
Mark, I just visited his/her site, and he/she rants about the rudeness of the “Bad Astronomy Gang” (or something like that), but fails to mention what you and I saw over there. Amazing!
January 26th, 2008 at 2:35 am
From JPL:
“Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena , Calif. , have obtained the first images of asteroid 2007 TU24 using high-resolution radar data. The data indicate the asteroid is somewhat asymmetrical in shape, with a diameter roughly 250 meters (800 feet) in size. Asteroid 2007 TU24 will pass within 1.4 lunar distances, or 538,000 kilometers (334,000 miles), of Earth on Jan. 29 at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time).
“With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week’s 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century,” said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project. “It is also the asteroid’s closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years.”"
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-014
January 26th, 2008 at 3:35 am
Owlbear, just so there is no confusion, I do believe Ostro is speaking about TU24 when he states that: “…next week’s 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century,”
I believe he is referring to this asteroid specifically, saying that this will be that particular asteroids closest approach until at least the end of the next century, and not other asteroids, which will more than likely pass closer.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:31 am
If I had a dollar for every blithering idiot who posted an “end of the World!” webpage, I’d be as rich as some of the guys I know who made big bucks in “y2k compliance”.
Science carries with it a responsibility. That responsibility is to tell the truth as you know it, and, when or if you are wrong, to admit it.
In this instance, Phil Plait is right. 2007 TU24 will not hit. were it not for the publicity 2007 TU 24 would not even be noticed by the general public. The entire episode would pass unnoticed.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:31 am
I’m waiting for for President Bush to reassure the American public that we are absolutely, 100% safe from the asteroid. If he does that, then I’ll know we are all royally doomed.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:38 am
Lugosi, Bush probably thinks an asteroid is a hemorrhoid.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:12 am
Michael, in the full article he is very specific. The above was just the opening paragraphs of the JPL press release.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:13 am
Uhm, he is very specific in 2007 TU-24’s next return. Not other NEOs.
January 26th, 2008 at 5:28 am
A previous closer flyby of a (potentially) larger asteroid was 2004 XP14 in July 2006:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_XP14
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060626_asteroid_close.html
So it’s been about 1.5 years since an asteroid approximately the size of TU24 flew closer to Earth. You’ll note that we’re all still here.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Owlbear, you are correct in stating that the researcher is very specific about TU24, but it could be interpreted by ill informed individuals as stating that this pass will be the closest over the next several centuries. Indeed for TU24, yes, but he fails to mention other rocks will pass closer.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:33 am
I don’t know of any 26,000-year cycle involving the Earth, unless he means the precession period, which is about 25,800 years. But that has nothing to do with crossing the galactic midplane.
Maybe he’s thinking of Raup and Sepkoski’s old Nemesis theory? I think that had a 26-million-year period.
January 26th, 2008 at 6:52 am
That’s is Barton, the precession period. No wonder I couldn’t google it.
January 26th, 2008 at 7:15 am
I have been showing this ongoing bruhaha to my like-minded co-worker and he asked what might happen when TU24 comes back at some point in the future. He asked why we couldn’t figure out it’s returning orbit - to which I responded while we could track what it might do in passing all the other ‘trackable’ objects (ie Planets, the sun, etc) there would be no way to extrapolate what might happen if it were to stike another rock and change it’s orbit - or if it were to interract with a larger (much larger) asteroid and have a gravitational shift in it’s pathing.
But in saying all that, I realized I had no clue whatsoever specifically ‘when’ it might return. I looked around a bit for some kind of orbital duration as to when it might come near Earth again, but couldn’t find anything.
Anyone know? Do we have any idea what kind of time span we’re talking about before we see TU24 coming back? (And I mean the rock, not the poster with the questionable gender - were I the ambulatory TU24 I wouldn’t return ever again… but sadly, I expect both will be back to Earth and BAdotCom, respectively)
January 26th, 2008 at 8:06 am
This from a guy who wrote AN ENTIRE BOOK called Death from the Skies, a book “…about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth”
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
Ironic
The problem here is that TU is one of those people who cannot distinguish between things that can (that is, have even the remotest possibility to) happen, and things that definitely WILL happen.
There is a medical name for that, although what it is escapes me at the moment.
January 26th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Good one, Phil.
And, come on, if you are scared about Tunguska:
The tunguska event was caused by an IMPACTOR ASTEROID. In fact, people believes that there was a nuclear fusion when the Tunguska Impactor exploded. TU24 is gonna miss us over 500000 KM away, Phil said that already.
@Tom:
That is the BEST example. XP14 was a gigantic motherf***** which came even closer to earth and was nearly a KM in diameter. 1.1 LD, it was a big object. No negative charge, none of that BS, we’re still alive.
Come on, 99.99999% is PLASMA? 99.99999% of the universe is NOTHING. Vacuum, emptyness. Nothing’s there. The rest is planets, stars, etc.
Oh, and let’s say:
An elephant goes running into my neighborhood. That doesn’t mean PRECISELY your house. It goes from the mainstreet every 5 years. Now, this elephant may get into your house or not. There IS a chance that the elephant will get into your house in 27 years. COME ON. (Not even stating the fact that making a comparison with an elephant is f*****g stupid.
Oh:
-“This will be the closest approach by a known asteroid of this size or larger until 2027” - Don Yeomans, JPL
It means that in 2027, an asteroid of the size of TU24, or even LARGER will come CLOSER to Earth.
-“…an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so.”
That means that every 5 years a “new TU24″ shows up. Which poses no actual threat.
I don’t see any contradiction here.
And if there is one: So? Does this means that we’re going to die because of a contradiction?
January 26th, 2008 at 8:27 am
@Mark and @Michael
You guys are funny.
The only time the ‘f’ word is mentioned is in a dream (repeated in two posts) by one person. It is not an insult. I’m sure you know the difference between the two.
I’m also sure most of your readers are laughing at your ridiculous attempt at painting an ugly picture of the TU24.org forums.
Anyone who has every visit the forum know that you’re both full of it on this one.
You’re really reaching here.. for something.. anything. Pathetic.
January 26th, 2008 at 8:36 am
I should have posted this link ages ago…
http://www.despair.com/wishes.html
January 26th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Strictly speaking, this approach of TU24 isn’t even a “close approach” at all! NEO researchers, by convention, define a “close approach” as closer than the orbit of the Moon.
Within living memory, dozens of small asteroids have passed closer to the Earth than TU24 - and in most cases, 99.9% of the world’s population never knew about them. It all just depends whether, as in this case, some scaremongering idiot happens to pick up on it.
Back in 1997, an astronomer friend of mine was actually approached by some moron of a journalist on his local paper, who somehow believed that there was a danger of Comet Hale-Bopp hitting the Earth - despite the well-publicised fact that its closest approach would be further away than the Sun!!!
As for all that “electric field” drivel… even if it was possible for an asteroid to have an appreciable electric charge ( which it isn’t ), haven’t these dolts heard of the Inverse Square Law? Many asteroids have passed MUCH closer to the Earth. In 1972, one made such a near miss that it actually entered the Earth’s atmosphere, on a trajectory tangential to its surface, and emerged back into space. What effect did that have on the Earth? None whatsoever.
I agree with the suggestion that, come 30 January, the loonies will FIND some disaster to blame on the asteroid. This is just like the ancient belief that comets were portents of disaster - wars, the death of kings, etc. There are so many disasters in this world, both natural and man-made, that for any comet ( or asteroid ) you care to think of, you can find one to falsely associate with it, if you look hard enough.
Finally, I completely fail to see what the precession period has to do with any part of this discussion!
January 26th, 2008 at 9:38 am
TU 24 is about the 80th closest NEO to pass Earth in the last 17 years:
http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Closest.html
Once again, no big deal. Wish I’d found this site earlier.
January 26th, 2008 at 9:49 am
TU24, you have failed to answer a simple question: Will you issue a public apology on January 30 after nothing has happened? Your silence on this matter is deafening.
January 26th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Disregard my previous post, the section of elephants. A monitor error made me thought that the elephant statement came from TU24.org, and believed that they thought there was still a contradiction on that statement.
January 26th, 2008 at 10:00 am
I figured it out! On January 29, 2008, the polls open in Florida for the presidential primary. The asteroid is going to cause the people of Florida to overwhelmingly vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton, starting an avalanche of votes for her, with her ending up with the Democratic nomination, and eventually the presidency. Of course, that will end life as we know it. Just ask Rush Limbaugh.
January 26th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Surely the Reptillians that live under the earth would redirect it away, as that would be an annoyance to them. Or the Government would use their secret Technology derived from Rosswell, to send it away, or they could just send SG1 to blow up the asteroid.
January 26th, 2008 at 10:53 am
TU24dotORG said:
“This from a guy who wrote AN ENTIRE BOOK called Death from the Skies, a book “…about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth”
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
Ironic”
Well, it would be ironic, except for one key difference: Phil has done his homework. Thus, he knows what can be known with confidence and what remains to be investigated. You seem to be quite happy making stuff up, or, IOW, lying to people.
January 26th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Well done Phil.
January 26th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Is there any possibilities that the orbit of the asteroid can get redefined and thus bringing it any closer?
Just a question.
January 26th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
TU24 -
The only thing truly pathetic is your complete disregard of the facts. You will be hoist by your own petard after nothing happens when the asteroid passes by.
January 26th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
TU24dotORG said:
“This from a guy who wrote AN ENTIRE BOOK called Death from the Skies, a book “…about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth”
Anyone notice there is 10x more doom coming from this site than TU24.org?
Ironic”
Let’s post the whole quote for fairness:
“It’s called ‘Death from the Skies’, and it’s about all the myriad ways astronomical events can wipe out (or seriously mess up) life on Earth. There have been books covering this topic before, but not with much breadth and depth simultaneously, and none I have seen are really thorough. I have all sorts of ideas (you like asteroid impacts wiping out all higher forms of life on Earth? That’s only chapter 1!), so this should be a fun book. I’m really tired of doomsday criers scaring people and scamming their money, so this should act as something of a mitigation. I want to be accurate, and I want to make sure that people understand that while the effects of a Galactic gamma-ray burst would good and truly suck — oceans boiling, atmosphere ripped off, the crust of the Earth melted to a depth of many miles, stuff like that– the odds are vanishingly small. How many people do you know who have been killed by a GRB?”
Hardly the doom and gloom you paint, but why let the truth get in the way of a good lie. But more importantly, how many people do you know that have been killed by an asteroid impact?
And for fun…
-“This will be the closest approach by a known asteroid of this size or larger until 2027” - Don Yeomans, NASA (1); “…an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so.” - Don Yeomans, NASA (2) [nevermind averages, why mislead the public under NASA authority?]
If reading comprehension isn’t your thing, ask your mom to read it and summarize it for you.
Here’s the more of the quote for fairness: (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news157.html)
“Given the estimated number of near-Earth asteroids of this size (about 7,000 discovered and undiscovered objects), an object of this size would be expected to pass this close to Earth, on average, about every 5 years or so. The average interval between actual Earth impacts for an object of this size would be about 37,000 years. For the January 29th encounter, near Earth asteroid 2007 TU24 has no chance of hitting, or affecting, Earth.”
“2007 TU24 will be the closest currently known approach by a potentially hazardous asteroid of this size or larger until 2027.”
I see no lie here unless you intentionally misunderstand what he is saying. In case you actually do care and aren’t rolling your eyes at this point, let me reiterate, of all the KNOWN objects, 2007 TU24 will be the closest currently KNOWN approach by a potentially hazardous asteroid of this size or larger until 2027. However, on average, every 5 years an UNKNOWN object of that size will be discovered.
But don’t take my word for it, let’s look at the facts. Thanks to Tom for posting a link to this page, http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Closest.html.
Now, 2007 TU24 is listed as a having an H of 20.1. The closest H on the chart is 20, which translates in it having a diameter of 260m to 590m, if I’m reading that chart correctly.
If we take Yeomans on his crazy “5 year average” nonsense, the biggest object before 2007 TU24 would be… 2002 NY40 with an H of 18.9 or a diameter of around 420m to 940m (using an H of 19). Hmmm, Yeomans probably just got lucky there! It’s not like he used real data to come up with that 5 year average. But I’ll get him.
Let’s go back another 5 years and what do we… damn it! It looks like 6 years before the deadly 2002 NY40 there was the horrible 1996 JA1, with an H of 20.5. Maybe Yeomans actually knows something here and he’s not just making stuff up. Go figure!
January 26th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Actually TU24, I’m sure that most readers are wondering why you won’t say whether you will apologise if you are wrong. But your responses look more like someone… really reaching here.. for something.. anything… to avoid answering the question.
Just answer a simple question: Will you apologise if you are wrong?
The only response you need to make is yes or no. It really is that easy.
January 26th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Here we are with the score so far in the Carnival Thread reaction to Phil Plait’s video clarification of the non-threat of Asteroid 2007 TU24:
For convenience, the many factions and opinions have been combined into two groups, followed by their scores in terms of rationality. Maximum points: 100:
1. The – “Danger, Charlatan, Anti-New York Times, Electric Universe, Ron Paul, Hate-Gore, Pro-Limbaugh, Rule-by-Superstition, Rightwing, Mumbo-Jumbo, Creationist, Pro-Bush, Reagan, Fox News, Sees-Jesus-in-a-Stain, Believers”: No. of posts: 121 – Rationality Score: 0
2. The – “Thinking, Liberal + Conservative-but-open-minded, Science Educated, Thoughtful, Rabble Rousers”: No. of posts: 20 - Rationality Score: 100
January 26th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Yoshi, yes, the orbit could be refined as further observations take place, but not to worry, scientists do know that even with further refinements, it still will pass us by. Phil addresses this on the video, I believe.
January 26th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Well, even if 2007 TU24 turns out to be a bust, we still have 2004 MN4 to look forward to.
January 26th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Never mind that, Lugosi, this is the ONE to watch!
http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s3i18439
January 26th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
#:
Well he is the BAD astronomer
January 26th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Ummmm, I hate to break this to everyone, but there is a spy satellite headed back, that apparently has no power to control where it comes down. I’ll head for my bunker now, thank you.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
and why are you going against don Yeomans predictions phil ? he WORKS everyday tracking it?
are you noo! youare at home on your ass writing a book
January 26th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Phil, Phil, Phil. Or should I say Alanis?
It would be ironic for you to write a book on debunking cosmic catastrophes while MAKING doomsaying claims of such events.
Clear thoughts are our best tools, don’t get lazy.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
good one michelle
January 26th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
@Michelle on 26 Jan 2008 at 3:58 pm
Do you kiss your mommy with that dirty mouth?
As for the potato shape of this asteroid, it is a random rock.
Only very large objects (at least a hundred kilometres in diameter)
become spherical, due to a mysterious force we call gravity.
And then we start calling them dwarf planets.
January 26th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Phil,
It was good to see you and talk with you this afternoon at The Amazing Meeting.
(I say this partly to gloat and make the others here envious. Ha ha
Keep up the good work.
January 26th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
So, Phil, did you just hear about the spy satellite that the USA has “lost contact with”… and is “out of control”