A few BABloggees have emailed me about a possible — stress the word "possible" — asteroid impact on Mars in January.
The odds are low, about 1 in 75, but they’re high enough to be interesting. The impactor is a small rock named 2007 WD5, and it’s in the 100 meter diameter range, enough to make an explosion with a yield of several megatons. However, the orbit is not well-enough determined to know if it will hit. Follow-up observations will nail down the asteroid’s path better. Most likely we’ll find out it will miss, but it would be totally cool if it hits.
I don’t have time right now to look into this much, but if I can tomorrow I’ll try to make some phone calls and follow up. My gut feeling is that an explosion of that size wouldn’t be visible from Earth even with big ’scopes, but I’ll need to do some math to figure it out. Certainly any of the orbiters currently circling the planet would see something.
But again, that’s only if it hits. Time will tell.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
With three active orbiters around Mars, if it does hit, we should have a front-row seat.
06-Dec-2006 “The Mars Global Surveyor’s Mars Orbiter Camera has found that meteorites are hitting the Martian surface and forming new craters all the time. If you were living on Mars, chances are that within 10 or 20 years, an impact would occur close enough to where you live that you’d notice it — perhaps you’d hear the impact and it would startle you out of your seat.”
http://marsprogram.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/gallery/20061206a-impacts.html
:-J
Gerry Williams
Mars Movie Guide
http://marsmovieguide.com/
__
“Living on Earth is expensive, but it includes a free trip around the sun.”
December 20th, 2007 at 10:21 pm
If the relative velocity is low enough, could Mars capture it and gain a third moon? That would make those old science fiction novels even more out of date.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
I hope that instruments from Earth or from Mars orbit will be trained upon the site of the impact, if it happens, to measure the stuff kicked up. The least interesting information will tell us the materials of the impactor. Much more interesting will be the information gleaned about Mars meters beneath its surface. Measuring the dust and stones blasted out of Mars’s hide would be fascinating. Looking into the fresh scar left from the impact should also give us precious information about Mars beneath its weathered surface.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
Wow! That would be kick Ass!
December 20th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
It’s up on the JPL Small Body Database :
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20WD5;orb=1
25 Observations over 29 days
Here’s a quick animated gif :
http://www.evilbastard.org/images/2007wd5anim.gif
December 20th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
“Most likely it will miss, but it would be totally cool if it hits.” ROFL. I’m going to tell Hoagie that you said that! It would be too cool if it smashed into the face at Cydonia, and demolished it and the pyramid hill. No wait. Then he would claim it was a NASA conspiracy to re-direct the Asteroid to cover up the truth of what’s on mars. Simply Astounding.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
“The odds are low, about 1 in 75, but they’re high enough to be interesting.”
This is why I don’t like the idea of inflatable domes for long-term Luna or Mars bases. The probability of a chunk of stuff slamming down out of the sky is not-insignificant on Earth-local bodies which happen to have thin or no atmospheres (Mars, Luna). I strongly favor tunnels dug by robots landed months, years or even decades before humans. Tunnels block the deadly effects of small crashing space-chunks, all solar wind and most interstellar radiation nastiness.
The oft-described prediction of inflating a thin bubble of Mylar shipped from Earth, inflated by “air” created by cracking the ultra-thin, local CO2 of Mars using electricity from solar panels, will give practically no protection against the harmfulness of Space outside of Earth’s precious magnetic bubble and ozone layer.
At any rate, when the Lunanauts or Marsophiles learn that a major solar storm is heading their way, they had better have a safe place to scramble into. When one is a world or two away from our precious mother…Earth…the only place to hide is underground.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Blizmo: The recent discovery of the caverns on Mars might be a solution to that problem. I agree, it is scary to contemplate something like this happening to future explorers. One wonders if the powers that be at NASA and the Russian and Chinese Agencies have considered this possibility?
December 20th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
It would be incredible if it hit! Either way, it should skim by fairly close. We could learn so much by watching a live meteorite strike on a planet relatively similar to our own, and by watching the smoking crater we could a lot about the Martian composition.
It’s hell of a lot more effective than a drill on some rover, and cheaper than an expedition.
Sorry Mars, but I’m voting against you on this one. We’ll have to see.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Lunanauts or Marsophiles? LMAO, Brilliant!
I’m a Marsophile myself, both for the planet and the candy
December 20th, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Awesome, that would be quite a site.
If the asteroid was to miss Mars, is there a possibility that one of the orbiters could perhaps spin around and image it as it passes by?
December 21st, 2007 at 12:04 am
If they confirm it’s going to hit Mars, then we’re in for a major dose of bad bad bad bad astronomy from the usual suspects over the next few weeks.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:06 am
Anyone for Demonauts? You know? The demons from Mars….. I’ll go to sleep now.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:07 am
Tacitus: I personally can’t wait!
December 21st, 2007 at 12:16 am
I’m envisioning a new blockbuster movie: People go to mars, discover alien artefacts, but suddenly they are threatened by an asteroid impact, but are saved by Bruce Willis and Cint Eastwood flying a Space Shuttle. Hmmmm…..
December 21st, 2007 at 12:41 am
Michael, actually it’s piloted by Richard Hoagland and Mike Bara
December 21st, 2007 at 1:11 am
Call me overly inquisitive, but if the odds of impact are so high, wouldn’t that also mean that the odds of the asteroid’s orbit possibly getting severely bent by Mars’ gravity would also increase? Maybe the object wouldn’t hit in a month, but possibly get thrown off kilter just enough to bring it back around at a later date for a confirmed hit. Dunno, just wondering if that would work.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:50 am
Hold on a sec.
Jupiter got hit by a comet in 1994.
Mars could be hit by an asteroid in 2008.
That means Earth is next on the list. In 2022…
Eeek.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:54 am
Actually, did no-one spot this little mistake on the MSNBC news article?
“In 2004, fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacked into Jupiter, creating a series of overlapping fireballs in space. Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.”
December 21st, 2007 at 2:04 am
Sorry gareth, where is the mistake?
December 21st, 2007 at 2:08 am
Sorry, caught it as that post was going through - they stated 2004, and it was 1994. Got it. One could technically argue that Astronomers did not actually see Shoemaker-Levy impact Jupiter, as if i remember correctly, it hit on the far side. What they witnessed were the after-effects on the cloud-tops. Ok, I’m nit-picking.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:15 am
Mistake is in date of impact. This is 1994, not 2004.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:51 am
Instapundit reports story from the Beeb thatEnceladus’ geyser isn’t salt water.
How often does Glen scoop Phil on a story about Planetary Astronomy?
More important this stamps void on tidal forces and radioactive core as possible sources for the geyser.
Where could that heat be coming from?
December 21st, 2007 at 3:15 am
Uh oh. I can just see the Creationists drooling at the mouth over this, since the article states words to the effect that there is not the level of sodium one would expect from water locked up for millions of years.
Could the heat be coming from some type of subsurface pressure?
December 21st, 2007 at 3:38 am
According to NEODyS the nominal flyby distance is 100,000 km and the minimum possible distance is as much as 93,000 km. Quite close, but far from being in a collision course. The doomsday asteroid Apophis will come much closer to Earth in 2026.
[b]Bad Albert[/b]: Slow relative velocity is not enough, there must be a mechanism that slows down the asteroid such as aerobraking or collision with existing moons in order to get it captured.
[b]Chris Owen[/b]: The asteroid moves quickly and its location is not know accurately enough, so imaging it is next to impossible. Not to mention that it is so small and distant that it would be visible just as a dot of light.
[b]Michael Lonergan[/b]: You’re right, the impact of SL9 occurred in July, 1994 on the far side very near Jupiter’s limb so astronomers were *almost* able to see the impacts, as only a few minutes later the impact sites rotated into view. Hubble actually saw the rising impact clouds. Galileo had the best vantage point because it was behind Jupiter’s orbit and saw the impacts directly. Too bad the amount of data was very limited due to the antenna problem.
December 21st, 2007 at 4:48 am
Before the asteroid hits, just pick one “sexy martian lady” here!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/poletti/sets/72157602965392887/
December 21st, 2007 at 5:03 am
If this object is confirmed, I wonder if it’ll beat out the impact of Shoemaker/Levy 9.
Like TacitusI also believe that a rush of bad astronomy will spread, thus bringing a call to arms with Phil in the lead. March on!
Wouldn’t be surprised if Hollywood makes some movies to go along with this event.
One other thing; if it does hit, what could it mean for our little robot friends on the planet? Will Spirit live on? Will Oppurtunity still knock?
December 21st, 2007 at 5:21 am
An object with a diameter of about 100 meters would yield likely not several megatons, but several TENS of megatons of energy. I’m not so sure it wouldn’t be visible with earthbound telescopes, at least in the infrared. Granted, Mars having a thin atmosphere rules out having the rock airburst and thus give the greatest amount of light, but even a groundburst should be detectable for several minutes by its IR afterglow. Purely my gut feeling, though.
December 21st, 2007 at 6:18 am
Oh oh. Let’s all hope it will hit! I wanna see movies of that!
It’s incredible that we hope asteroids will hit other planets but not ours
December 21st, 2007 at 6:23 am
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/skynews/20071221/twl-giant-asteroid-2007-wd5-set-to-ploug-3fd0ae9.html
…wow. yahoo overdramatizes again. “Giant asteroid”? Where? 100 meters? That’s not giant.
December 21st, 2007 at 6:48 am
If this object is confirmed, I wonder if it’ll beat out the impact of Shoemaker/Levy 9.
The energy released in an impact of 2007 WD5 would be nothing compared to the SL9 impacts. The comet consisted of over two dozen objects, largest of which were several kilometers across. In addition, it hit Jupiter, whose gravity well is “slightly” deeper than Mars’.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:01 am
@ Matt Johns,
You mentioned the possibility that it could slow the asteroid enough for a return trajectory in a few year, or month’s time. What about a different scenario?
The position of Mars when the asteroid changes the trajectory and it loops around Mars, taking up a direct course for Earth in 2012.
Of course, NASA knows all about this, but, under orders from the Illuminati, they are keeping it secret to prevent widespread panic. This, of course, will coincide with the Myan calander’s prediction of the end of the world, (as the Earth passes from the Northern hemisphere of the Galaxy to the Southern), and the detonation of Saturn by the Cassini nucularrr fuel (warming Titan to provide a refuge for the same Illuminati). The Hyperspace control mechanisms found in the Cydonian city will provide any needed course corrections as the rock swings by, naturally.
Did I miss anything?
December 21st, 2007 at 7:05 am
I wouldn’t call 1 in 75 odds “low”. If a lottery presented me with odds like that, I might just buy a ticket.
I’ve often heard news reports on schizophrenia state that “schizophrenia is a rare condition, affecting about 1% of the U.S. population.” To which I’ve always responded, “If one person in every 100 were to suddenly burst into flames, I don’t think you’d call that ‘rare’.”
December 21st, 2007 at 7:37 am
Mars: “I can has missul defense sheeld?”
The opportunity to actually observe a large rocky object smacking into a larger rocky object at sun-orbital velocities will be fascinating, no matter the outcome. That it’ll be hitting Mars, and thus give us an opportunity to watch it from a safe standoff distance without any real civilian panic or danger to worry about, is almost optimal. Here’s to hoping it hits the near-side so we can literally watch it with every telescope we can point that way.
Of course, should it be sufficiently impressive, may revive fears about 99942 Apophis in 2036.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:42 am
“Slow relative velocity is not enough, there must be a mechanism that slows down the asteroid such as aerobraking or collision with existing moons in order to get it captured.”
Interesting point. My HS class YAHOO group was discussing When Worlds Collide by Wyiie and we wondered if such a scenario would be possible. One of the guys conjectured that gravitational configuration of the Earth and the larger planet may be able to change the direction and velocity of the smaller planet just enough for it to reach a stable orbit.
Anyone’s thoughts?
As for the size of the explosion, note the downsizing of the asteroid in the Tunguska blast.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:54 am
Bad Alberton asked:
“If the relative velocity is low enough, could Mars capture it and gain a third moon?”
That would only happen given some mechanism to drain the asteroid of some of its orbital energy without actually crashing into the planet. It can happen if the asteroid grazes the Martian atmosphere, where kinetic energy would be converted to heat energy in the air. The small rock would then be slowed relative to Mars, and if it’s slowed enough, its orbital path will become an ellipse with one focus at the planet/asteroid barycenter.
This is essentially the same technique used to assist placing several probes into Martian orbit, and to repeatedly trim their orbits from highly elliptical to something much closer to circular.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:57 am
Speaking of the Tunguska blast, on my local news this morning, they mentioned that the Tunguska event destroyed 60 million trees. This number seemed a bit high to me, so I looked up the info at Wikipedia. The article there says that *80* million trees were destroyed in a 2150 square kilometer area. Unless I’m making a math error, that would mean that there were 37 trees per square meter in this area. Surely this number is a bit high.
J. D.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:59 am
Interesting point. My HS class YAHOO group was discussing When Worlds Collide by Wyiie and we wondered if such a scenario would be possible. One of the guys conjectured that gravitational configuration of the Earth and the larger planet may be able to change the direction and velocity of the smaller planet just enough for it to reach a stable orbit.
You mean what happens if there are three bodies involved? Then of course the situation is different. Some time ago a group of scientists suggested that Triton was originally a part of Pluto/Charon-style double dwarf planet system which got snatched by Neptune. The companion flew away stealing energy from Triton which got trapped in Neptune’s gravitational field.
As for the size of the explosion, note the downsizing of the asteroid in the Tunguska blast.
Tunguska blast occurred in atmosphere. The atmosphere of Mars is hardly comparable to Earth’s.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:10 am
J.D. Mack: “Unless I’m making a math error, that would mean that there were 37 trees per square meter in this area.”
You’re making a math error. There are 2150 000 000 meters squared in 2150 square km. That works out to 0.037 trees/square meter or each tree taking up roughly 27 square meters. Roughly 5×5 meters - sounds realistic to me.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:12 am
Last night at 1:30 AM (oh it was this morning, sorry!) I finished my presentation for public night at McCormick Observatory (Phil’s old stomping grounds) titled “The Mars Curse!” about the trouble we’ve had getting probes to Mars. To celebrate my completing the prezo I did a quick email check and cruised over here to BA blogland and what do I see? 2007 WD5!
I -CAN’T- not talk about this tonight! I guess I’ll have to stick it at the head in a humorous fashion and dispell any of the crazy notions folks have about doom & gloom… And magical thinking about the odds and all.
Now if I could just find an image of the darned thing…
Rich
December 21st, 2007 at 8:16 am
If it doesn’t hit in January, the next close encounter will be July 12, 2032. Perhaps a near-miss but any sort of gravitational tug this time around might ensure an impact on it’s second visit.
**grabs lawn chair and beer and heads to backyard**
December 21st, 2007 at 8:23 am
That sounds like a reasonable tree density for an old forest but maybe not for a young one. On a side note, I really hope this thing hits. I’ve always wanted to see an asteroid impact. Sometimes driving down the road, I imagine seeing it in the distance. Only problem is being far enough away to still see it while not being destroyed by the blast wave/earthquakes/fallout.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:35 am
Could a near miss change the rock’s orbit to put it line with Earth?
December 21st, 2007 at 8:41 am
Is anyone else getting just slightly alarmed about the tone of the responses to this topic? I can’t believe that a bunch of sane rational individuals are drooling like fundie zealots over the impending impact of an object that could cause severe mass destruction! HE HE HE I love this! Maybe NASA has a secret probe with glowing neon arrows pointing the way to Mars and a lander shaped like a giant bullseye on the surface.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:42 am
Thanks, Gordan, for clearing that up.
J. D.
December 21st, 2007 at 9:26 am
@Michael: Well, as long as it’s not in my backyard I’m all for utter and complete destruction ;P
December 21st, 2007 at 9:27 am
> Is anyone else getting just slightly alarmed about the tone of the responses to this topic? I can’t believe that a bunch of sane rational individuals are drooling like fundie zealots over the impending impact of an object that could cause severe mass destruction!
Oh no! The poor Mars rocks! Quick! Call Bono so he can organize a Mars Aid concert!
“Every time I clap, a young Mars rock gets powdered.”
“THEN STOP DOIN’ IT THEN, YA EVIL BASTARD!”
December 21st, 2007 at 9:37 am
Hmmm, since I love U2, i wouldn’t mind a Mars-Aid!
centipede: That reminds me of a Bono joke, U2 are in St. John’s Newfoundland, and Bono is doing his Africa spiel. He states, in typical Bono-esque fahion, “By the time I finish tellin’ you about what’s happening in Africa, another 30,000 children will have died.” To which a Newfie in the front row pipes up, “well shut the hell up then, an get on wi’ it.”
December 21st, 2007 at 9:37 am
Here’s some more poop on 2007 WD5.
I can’t help myself, I’m using WD40, the kerosene/graphite mix locked-nut-loosener to remember the designation of this thingie. It works… If the links here don’t work, then use good ol’ cut & paste to get it to your browser’s address window.
————————–
http://unicorn.eis.uva.es/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2007WD5;main
I love the probability estimate of “close approach” that they give for the Nov 20 ‘07 & Jan 30 ‘08 events: 1 !!! I also get about 58,000 miles for the “Minimum Possible Distance” figure after converting it from AU.
———-
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20WD5;orb=1
This JPL page loads slowly but it’s worth it. You can see the orbits in 3D and run the clock ahead to see Jan 30.
———-
2007WD5 Designation
O K
C Type
2007/11/20.42001 yr/mo/day
1.000E-05 accuracy
04:14:14.100 R.A. hms
1.500E-01 accuracy
1.000 rms
F F
0.000 bias
0.456 residuals
+17d 25′ 50.50″ Dec deg/min/sec
1.000E-01 accuracy
1.000 rms
F F
0.000 bias
0.159 residuals
20.2 R apparent mag
0.70 rms
0.36 residuals
H01 Site code
0.56 res. chi
Yes used A
Yes used M
————————–
Some other magnitude numbers are in the 23 range.
The LA Times article said the Moon was in the way, as if the asteroid was hidden behind the Moon, but I think it’s more a case of the light pollution making it hard to image a mag 23 object. Starry Night Pro show the RA & Dec as being to the West (but slightly) of the Hyades in Taurus. In a week the Moon will be out of the way and we can image it and work out the orbit better.
Edward C.:
You’re right, it -COULD- get perturbed and come ’round for a closer Earth approach. It seems from the first link above that it’s headed here way more often than Mars.
Rich
December 21st, 2007 at 9:41 am
I hope that this really does impact Mars if only for the awareness that it would raise about an impact on Earth. Even though the chances of a large object hitting Earth are small on human timescales the probabilities (as we’re all aware) are cumulative and this event could drive that point home with the powers that be. We really need to learn how to move asteroids away from Earth. Yay for planetary defense!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:47 am
> Yay for planetary defense!
The way real MEN defend the planet: N00KS FOR PEACE!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:48 am
It would be cool if a near miss resulted in a new moon capture for Mars. I’m used to the gas giant moon count changing, but I’ve never been around when a new rocky planet moon came along.
December 21st, 2007 at 10:04 am
It’s a little scary (well, quite scary, actually!) that these odds are discovered/determined with only six weeks until the outcome is known. This could make the third (known) major impact on a nearby celestial body in the span of a person’s lifetime. (I’m thinking Tunkguska in 1908, Comet Shoemaker-Levy, and this one). It seems that the chance of another Earth impact are quite good.
What worries me is the short time span between discovery and potential impact. What would we do if we only had six weeks to avoid/destroy an object destined for Earth.
(Yah — I know — that movie… and those books…)
December 21st, 2007 at 10:09 am
Presuming the small chunks of Mars found in Antarctica came here by way of a giant impact event on the red planet, is there any possibility that we could receive any projectiles?
In other words, how large of an impact event allows for impact debris to travel such long distances, and is 2007 WD5 of this size or greater?
Mmmmm… fresh Mars meat.
December 21st, 2007 at 10:57 am
> What would we do if we only had six weeks to avoid/destroy an object destined for Earth.
I for one would get drunk, strip naked, and run around screaming because I’d be running out of an opportunity to do so. If the government and its Secret Roswell Space Grand Cannon project saved us and I looked somewhat silly, I would defend my actions on the basis that at least I lived a little while the living was good and now no one will have the opportunity that they missed now that there will be Space Peace In Our Time (TM).
December 21st, 2007 at 11:17 am
With our luck, it will hit Mars, but:
It will impact on the side not visible from Earth, nor will any of the orbiters be in a position to witness the actual impact. (Well, one of them will be, but it gets smashed by the asteroid on its way in.)
At least that’s what NASA will _claim_ happened.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Gordon,
Doesn’t the k in km mean 1,000? So there would only be 2,150,000 meters squared? In which case I got .02 trees per meter squared, or roughly 1 tree per 7×7 meters. Still realistic.
December 21st, 2007 at 3:54 pm
TSFrost,
1 km = 1,000 m
1 km^2 = 1,000^2 m^2 = 1,000,000 m^2
Thus, 8.0e7 trees / 2.2e9 m2 = 0.036 trees/m2
Or, 2.2e9 m2 / 8.0e7 trees = 28 m2/trees
You got the right result in the end. That’s what matters anyway
December 21st, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Addendum: I think you just divided the wrong way. That is, 2,150,000 / 80,000,000 = 0.02…, which is area per tree.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:27 pm
alfaniner asked
Die.
December 22nd, 2007 at 4:57 am
I hope it doesn’t hit it, cause undoubtedly, it wil affect earth too, but i think we are unaware of the possible consequences to us.
If we are to believe the photos NASA released, Mars is still hibited with life, intelligent structures and if we might say so, thus extraterrestrial aliens.
It would mean a terrific blast which they are not going to like, so in the end i guess its going to be a near miss either way. I would be surpised if it would be a full hits……on the couch watching TV eating popcorn.
Oliver
December 22nd, 2007 at 9:20 am
Oliver,
I certainly don’t wish harm to anything which may be living on Mars, but enough is understood to say that there’s almost no chance of any harm to Earth. The asteroid’s orbital path is known to within a narrow uncertainty, so its spectrum of potential futures after passing Mars is also small enough to say that there’s no foreseeable threat to Earth. And it’s even less of a possible threat to us if it happens to collide with Mars.
The solar system is a big place. Most of what happens within it doesn’t happen to Earth.
December 22nd, 2007 at 1:48 pm
If a space rock crashes into Mars, and there is no one there to hear it, does it still make a noise?
I find it slightly disturbing that they have been able to detect an object of this size on a near miss/impact trajectory with Mars, yet have apparently missed seeing similar sized objects almost hitting us until they have passed by.
December 22nd, 2007 at 6:16 pm
Michael,
Detection of this object as it approaches Mars doesn’t necessarily mean that astronomers are (comparatively speaking) asleep at the switch with respect to Earth-crossing objects. It’s only one instance; it’s quite possible that for each Mar’s-crosser detected, a dozen are missed.
Also keep in mind that astronomers do detect Earth-crossers. But there is some likelihood of missing a number of objects. Since we don’t already know that they’re there ’til we’ve detected them, it stands to reason that the survey strategies will miss some fraction of such asteroids. In fact, as the fraction of the population of such objects to be detected rises, the rate of detection of the residue will tend to drop off. If the population of such asteroids is large, it’s unlikely that absolutely all will ever be cataloged. It’s a statistical sort of game.
Note: It has been proposed to detect all solar system objects by illuminating them with a bath of electromagnetic waves generated by several large nuclear explosions out in space (several, because positional data must be provided over a period of time to pin down all the objects’ orbital elements). By monitoring the whole sky with a battery of phased-array antennae, this method in particular stands a chance of doing the job. But, the detonation of nukes in space would violate international treaty.
December 22nd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Thanks Mark. Something just struck me as really funny. If detonating nukes in space violates an international treaty, then someone should arrest the Sun, because it is clearly in violation of international treaties.
I hope the UN doesn’t catch wind of this.
December 23rd, 2007 at 9:58 am
Just a scenario…The meteor misses Mars but gets so close it receives a gravitational “wrap around” from the martian gravity sending it towards Earth. -Deep impact & Armageddon fan
December 25th, 2007 at 12:36 am
Would the impact ejecta have enough velocity to go into Mars orbit or completely escape the gravitational field?
December 25th, 2007 at 1:16 am
Care for an amazing conspiracy story woven around this asteroid and several other - true or made-up - space news snippets of recent days? Buckle up and have a look at http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1058.htm …
Dan
December 25th, 2007 at 1:41 am
Harry,
Such an asteroid impact could easily eject some smallish fragments at escape velocity.
They could also be put on an elliptical orbit. However, with this is scenario the elliptical path, intersecting the planetary surface, would necessarily bring the ejecta right back into the surface. (If a chunk of ejecta could be made to explode in-two at just the right place on its trajectory, with just the right energy, with the fragments separating in just the right direction, then one piece’s path could be adjusted to put it on a non-intersecting ellipse. This is essentially a two-stage rocket, with the first stage being the initial asteroid impact.)
December 25th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
What are the chances a meteor could hit our Moon? Would Moon’s weak gravitational field rule out much of a chance this could happen?
December 26th, 2007 at 1:02 am
Harry,
The Moon evidently has had its share of meteorite hits; it’s carpeted in craters.
The likelihood depends first on the close passage of a potential impactor. Second is the Moon’s diameter. This presents a circular cross-section through which an asteroid’s path may pass. The larger the cross-section, the larger the chance that a path may pass through it. And of course, the Moon’s gravity plays a role, because it bends the paths of passing rocks toward it. So as you are aware, the stronger the gravitational field, the more that an asteroid will be attracted and the greater the chance that it’ll collide.
So from this it’s obvious that, for a population of asteroids with paths that come near the Earth-Moon system, Earth will get more hits on average. (But then again, most meteors are small and disintegrate as they plow through our atmosphere. The Moon has more large craters because it has no air and very slow erosion processes.)
December 26th, 2007 at 2:38 am
Is radar used to determine the distance of this asteroid? How otherwise are they able to determine its size and distance so accurately? And I’m impressed with how accurate the ephemeride data is for these objects and have wondered how they are able to make such accurate measurements of inclination, eccentricity, mean longitude, etc?
December 28th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Using older imagery from before initial discovery it sounds like JPL has been able to refine the impact probability to 1 in 25.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
January 13th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
The discovered asteroid headed towards Mars has already created a learning enviornment for people on Earth. It is true that we have many ways of determining facts about space and space objects that at first glance would seem impossible to determine. One known fact is that objects passing close to planets are unlikely to become orbiting moons. It can be infered by this information that the moons in our solar system exist due to different reasons althoghether. It might be a stretch, but imact hits seen on the different planets seem to indicate that the planets were long since here prior to the impacts. This leads to an idea that accreation was not the way the planets were created. Besides, if the big bang created pockets of dust and gas made out of hydrogen which later formed the galaxies, it would be so unlikely because the explosion would have ripped any imagined atoms to bits. Similar suspicions exist about dust and gas forming to create solar systems.
Jet